Tom Lee c&#7911;a Fundstrat d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n S&amp;P 500 c&oacute; th&#7875; t&#259;ng 250 &#273;i&#7875;m trong th&aacute;ng 11, nh&#7901; c&aacute;c nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; qu&#7929; g&#7845;p r&uacute;t &#273;&#7841;t &#273;&#432;&#7907;c chu&#7849;n m&#7921;c. H&#417;n 80% nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; &#273;ang b&#7883; t&#7909;t l&#7841;i sau m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u trong n&#259;m 2025, t&#7841;o c&#417; h&#7897;i cho vi&#7879;c ch&#7841;y &#273;ua hi&#7879;u su&#7845;t &#273;&#7871;n cu&#7889;i n&#259;m.
D&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n n&agrave;y &#273;&#7871;n v&agrave;o th&#7901;i &#273;i&#7875;m quan tr&#7885;ng cho th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng c&#7893; phi&#7871;u. L&#7883;ch s&#7917; nghi&ecirc;ng v&#7873; ph&iacute;a t&#259;ng tr&#432;&#7903;ng cho c&#7893; phi&#7871;u v&agrave;o th&aacute;ng 11, v&agrave; m&#7863;c d&ugrave; c&oacute; lo ng&#7841;i v&#7873; &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute;, c&aacute;c xu h&#432;&#7899;ng kinh t&#7871; v&#297; m&ocirc; l&#7841;i mang &#273;&#7871;n s&#7921; l&#7841;c quan.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-fund-managers-drive-november-rally-expectations">C&aacute;c nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; qu&#7929; th&uacute;c &#273;&#7849;y k&#7923; v&#7885;ng ph&#7909;c h&#7891;i th&aacute;ng 11</h2>

Quan &#273;i&#7875;m l&#7841;c quan c&#7911;a Lee, chia s&#7867; trong m&#7897;t cu&#7897;c ph&#7887;ng v&#7845;n v&#7899;i CNBC, t&#7853;p trung v&agrave;o vi&#7879;c &ldquo;ch&#7841;y &#273;ua hi&#7879;u su&#7845;t&rdquo;. Ph&#7847;n l&#7899;n nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; qu&#7929; &#273;ang l&ugrave;i sau c&aacute;c chu&#7849;n m&#7921;c v&agrave;o n&#259;m 2025, do &#273;&oacute; vi&#7879;c mua v&agrave;o cu&#7889;i n&#259;m th&#432;&#7901;ng gia t&#259;ng khi h&#7885; c&#7889; g&#7855;ng thu h&#7865;p kho&#7843;ng c&aacute;ch. M&ocirc; h&igrave;nh n&agrave;y &#273;&atilde; l&#7883;ch s&#7917; n&acirc;ng cao m&#7913;c l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n trong c&aacute;c giai &#273;o&#7841;n m&ugrave;a m&#7841;nh.
S&amp;P 500 &#273;&atilde; c&oacute; s&#7921; quay l&#7841;i nhanh ch&oacute;ng v&agrave;o n&#259;m 2025. Sau khi gi&#7843;m h&#417;n 15% trong n&#259;m &#273;&#7871;n th&aacute;ng 4, ch&#7881; s&#7889; n&agrave;y hi&#7879;n &#273;ang <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/sp500-weak-breadth-crypto-shift/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">d&#7921; ki&#7871;n k&#7871;t th&uacute;c v&#7899;i hai ch&#7919; s&#7889;</a>.
S&#7921; ph&#7909;c h&#7891;i n&agrave;y &#273;&#432;a n&#259;m 2025 v&agrave;o nh&oacute;m nh&#7919;ng n&#259;m hi&#7871;m hoi, nh&#432; 1982, 2009, v&agrave; 2020, c&#361;ng t&#7915;ng ch&#7913;ng ki&#7871;n nh&#7919;ng &#273;&#7843;o chi&#7873;u t&#432;&#417;ng t&#7921;. Ryan Detrick <a href="https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1985360436091404665" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">&#273;&atilde; ghi ch&uacute;</a> r&#7857;ng m&#7895;i n&#259;m &#273;&oacute; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c theo sau b&#7903;i m&#7897;t n&#259;m kh&aacute;c v&#7899;i m&#7913;c t&#259;ng hai ch&#7919; s&#7889;.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;" decoding="async" alt="S&amp;P 500 slingshot years comparison 2025" class="wp-image-768903 lazy" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/LCWBb8XQhMOKD4obY2x-BnTX5FI=/smart/18e28ef3ae00484dbdc46c99a49e8d5d">So s&aacute;nh n&#259;m &#273;&#7843;o chi&#7873;u c&#7911;a S&amp;P 500 cho th&#7845;y m&ocirc; h&igrave;nh ph&#7909;c h&#7891;i n&#259;m 2025. Ngu&#7891;n: Ryan Detrick

Sau s&aacute;u th&aacute;ng t&#259;ng 22.8%, l&#7883;ch s&#7917; cho th&#7845;y S&amp;P 500 th&#432;&#7901;ng ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c t&#259;ng. L&#7907;i &iacute;ch trung b&igrave;nh trong ba th&aacute;ng sau c&aacute;c &#273;&#7907;t t&#259;ng n&agrave;y l&agrave; 3.4%, trong khi l&#7907;i &iacute;ch 12 th&aacute;ng trung b&igrave;nh g&#7847;n nh&#432; &#273;&#7841;t 10%. &#272;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c n&agrave;y h&#7895; tr&#7907; quan &#273;i&#7875;m c&#7911;a Lee v&#7873; <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/altcoins-to-watch-first-week-november/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">m&#7897;t giai &#273;o&#7841;n ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c m&#7903; r&#7897;ng &#273;&#7871;n n&#259;m 2026</a>.
Th&aacute;ng 11 l&#7883;ch s&#7917; l&agrave; m&#7897;t trong nh&#7919;ng th&aacute;ng t&#7889;t nh&#7845;t cho c&#7893; phi&#7871;u. K&#7875; t&#7915; n&#259;m 1927, S&amp;P 500 &#273;&atilde; t&#259;ng trong 59% c&aacute;c th&aacute;ng 11, &#273;&#7913;ng th&#7913; ba v&#7873; m&#7863;t m&#7841;nh nh&#7845;t v&#7899;i l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n trung b&igrave;nh l&agrave; 1.01%.
<a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/russell-2000-ethereums-correlation-us-crypto-news/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nasdaq 100 v&agrave; Russell 2000</a> &#273;&atilde; &#273;&#432;a ra m&#7913;c t&#259;ng trung b&igrave;nh th&#7853;m ch&iacute; c&ograve;n t&#7889;t h&#417;n l&agrave; 2.47% v&agrave; 2.64% trong kho&#7843;ng th&#7901;i gian n&agrave;y.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;" decoding="async" alt="November S&amp;P 500 historical performance" class="wp-image-768906 lazy" style="width:659px;height:auto" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/1oC-ovCjysE1sal2kfwNhaYm3zg=/smart/d6d6d186bdde40bf9de724dde2d91e39">Th&aacute;ng 11 &#273;&#7913;ng h&agrave;ng th&aacute;ng m&#7841;nh th&#7913; ba cho S&amp;P 500 k&#7875; t&#7915; 1927. Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1985108229584748979" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">The Kobeissi Letter</a>

Khi S&amp;P 500 t&#259;ng h&#417;n 15% trong n&#259;m t&iacute;nh &#273;&#7871;n th&aacute;ng 11, ch&#7881; s&#7889; n&agrave;y &#273;&atilde; c&oacute; m&#7913;c l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n trung b&igrave;nh l&agrave; 2.7%.
Trong n&#259;m &#273;&#7847;u ti&ecirc;n c&#7911;a chu k&#7923; t&#7893;ng th&#7889;ng M&#7929;, th&aacute;ng 11 c&#361;ng m&#7841;nh, v&#7899;i S&amp;P 500 t&#259;ng 67% th&#7901;i gian v&#7899;i m&#7913;c trung b&igrave;nh 0.67%. Nh&#7919;ng m&ocirc; h&igrave;nh n&agrave;y c&#7911;ng c&#7889; k&#7923; v&#7885;ng c&#7911;a Lee v&#7873; nhi&#7873;u l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n h&#417;n.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-ai-and-corporate-margins-offset-macro-headwinds">AI v&agrave; bi&ecirc;n l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n doanh nghi&#7879;p b&ugrave; &#273;&#7855;p kh&oacute; kh&#259;n v&#297; m&ocirc;</h2>

Lee nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh r&#7857;ng l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n v&agrave; bi&ecirc;n l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n doanh nghi&#7879;p &#273;ang t&#259;ng nh&#7901; nh&#7919;ng th&agrave;nh t&#7921;u t&#7915; tr&iacute; tu&#7879; nh&acirc;n t&#7841;o tr&ecirc;n nhi&#7873;u ng&agrave;nh. D&ugrave; c&oacute; lo ng&#7841;i v&#7873; thu&#7871; quan v&agrave; <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/powell-crypto-outflows-solana-inflows/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang</a>, nh&#7919;ng y&#7871;u t&#7889; c&#417; b&#7843;n n&agrave;y h&#7895; tr&#7907; quan &#273;i&#7875;m l&#7841;c quan c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng. AI hi&#7879;n &#273;ang l&agrave; &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c quan tr&#7885;ng cho l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n, gi&uacute;p c&aacute;c c&ocirc;ng ty duy tr&igrave; l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n trong th&#7901;i k&#7923; kinh t&#7871; kh&ocirc;ng ch&#7855;c ch&#7855;n.
C&aacute;c xu h&#432;&#7899;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#361;ng c&#7843;i thi&#7879;n th&ecirc;m t&igrave;nh h&igrave;nh t&iacute;ch c&#7921;c. L&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#7889;t l&otilde;i &#273;ang gi&#7843;m nhanh h&#417;n d&#7921; ki&#7871;n, v&agrave; chi ph&iacute; nh&agrave; &#7903; &#273;&atilde; &#7893;n &#273;&#7883;nh. &#272;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y l&agrave;m gi&#7843;m &aacute;p l&#7921;c l&ecirc;n ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch ti&#7873;n t&#7879;, cho ph&eacute;p C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang c&oacute; th&ecirc;m linh ho&#7841;t v&agrave; gi&#7843;m thi&#7875;u kh&#7843; n&#259;ng t&#259;ng l&atilde;i su&#7845;t m&#7841;nh c&oacute; th&#7875; l&agrave;m ng&#432;ng &#273;&agrave; t&#259;ng tr&#432;&#7903;ng.
Trong khi &#273;&oacute;, th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng ti&#7873;n &#273;i&#7879;n t&#7917; &#273;ang th&#7875; hi&#7879;n s&#7921; &#7893;n &#273;&#7883;nh c&oacute; th&#7875; b&#7893; sung cho l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n c&#7893; phi&#7871;u. <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/thi-truong-tien-dien-tu-17-6/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bitcoin v&agrave; Ethereum</a> &#273;ang c&#7911;ng c&#7889;, nh&#432;ng doanh thu &#7913;ng d&#7909;ng cao v&agrave; kh&#7889;i l&#432;&#7907;ng stablecoin gia t&#259;ng b&aacute;o hi&#7879;u c&aacute;c y&#7871;u t&#7889; c&#417; b&#7843;n m&#7841;nh m&#7869;. Nh&#7919;ng xu h&#432;&#7899;ng n&agrave;y &#273;&#7873; xu&#7845;t m&#7897;t kh&#7843; n&#259;ng t&#259;ng gi&aacute; v&agrave;o cu&#7889;i n&#259;m c&oacute; th&#7875; n&acirc;ng cao ni&#7873;m tin c&#7911;a nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i c&aacute;c t&agrave;i s&#7843;n r&#7911;i ro.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-valuation-concerns-persist-amid-optimism">M&#7889;i lo ng&#7841;i v&#7873; &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute; v&#7851;n t&#7891;n t&#7841;i gi&#7919;a l&uacute;c l&#7841;c quan</h2>

Kh&ocirc;ng ph&#7843;i t&#7845;t c&#7843; chuy&ecirc;n gia &#273;&#7873;u &#273;&#7891;ng t&igrave;nh v&#7899;i s&#7921; l&#7841;c quan c&#7911;a Lee. S&amp;P 500 hi&#7879;n giao d&#7883;ch &#7903; m&#7913;c 40 l&#7847;n d&ograve;ng ti&#7873;n t&#7921; do, ch&#7881; th&#7845;p h&#417;n 25% so v&#7899;i &#273;&#7881;nh dot-com l&agrave; 50 l&#7847;n.
M&#7913;c n&agrave;y g&#7847;n nh&#432; g&#7845;p &#273;&ocirc;i trung b&igrave;nh th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng t&#259;ng hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i, t&#7841;o ra c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o cho m&#7897;t s&#7889; ng&#432;&#7901;i cho r&#7857;ng &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute; &#273;ang b&#7883; k&eacute;o gi&atilde;n gi&#7889;ng nh&#432; cu&#7889;i nh&#7919;ng n&#259;m 1990.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;" decoding="async" alt="S&amp;P 500 price to free cash flow ratio 2025" class="wp-image-768904 lazy" style="width:877px;height:auto" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/RCZaACEgym2lcunjNRqljTOs-Jc=/smart/7553a12ae80e4bb0be80616c712011d9">S&amp;P 500 giao d&#7883;ch &#7903; m&#7913;c 40x d&ograve;ng ti&#7873;n t&#7921; do, ti&#7871;n &#273;&#7871;n m&#7913;c cao th&#7901;i k&#7923; dot-com. Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://x.com/Ross__Hendricks/status/1984692773078069634" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">Ross Hendricks</a>

C&aacute;c ch&#7881; s&#7889; CAPE v&#7851;n &#7903; m&#7913;c cao, khi&#7871;n c&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; t&#7853;p trung v&agrave;o gi&aacute; tr&#7883; c&#7849;n th&#7853;n h&#417;n. Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, Lee ph&#7843;n b&aacute;c r&#7857;ng n&#7873;n t&#7843;ng m&#7841;nh v&agrave; t&#259;ng tr&#432;&#7903;ng l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n nh&#7901; AI bi&#7879;n minh cho c&aacute;c nh&acirc;n t&#7889; nh&acirc;n cao h&#417;n. &Ocirc;ng l&#7853;p lu&#7853;n r&#7857;ng c&aacute;c ch&#7881; s&#7889; truy&#7873;n th&#7889;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; kh&ocirc;ng ho&agrave;n to&agrave;n ph&#7843;n &aacute;nh &#273;&#432;&#7907;c t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng c&#7911;a AI l&ecirc;n l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n.
Cu&#7897;c tranh lu&#7853;n n&agrave;y ti&#7871;t l&#7897; s&#7921; c&#259;ng th&#7859;ng gi&#7919;a s&#7921; l&#7841;c quan do &#273;&#7897;ng l&#432;&#7907;ng v&agrave; s&#7921; th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute;. M&#7863;c d&ugrave; Lee t&#7921; tin v&agrave;o c&aacute;c y&#7871;u t&#7889; th&uacute;c &#273;&#7849;y ng&#7855;n h&#7841;n, nh&#7919;ng ng&#432;&#7901;i ho&agrave;i nghi c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o r&#7857;ng nh&acirc;n t&#7889; nh&acirc;n cao kh&ocirc;ng &#273;&#7875; l&#7841;i nhi&#7873;u ch&#7895; n&#7871;u &#273;i&#7873;u ki&#7879;n tr&#7903; n&ecirc;n x&#7845;u h&#417;n ho&#7863;c l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n kh&ocirc;ng &#273;&#7841;t k&#7923; v&#7885;ng.
Khi th&aacute;ng 11 ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c, c&acirc;u h&#7887;i quan tr&#7885;ng l&agrave; li&#7879;u s&#7921; c&#7845;p b&aacute;ch c&#7911;a c&aacute;c nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; qu&#7929; v&agrave; &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c theo m&ugrave;a c&oacute; <a href="https://beincrypto.com/sp500-weak-breadth-crypto-shift/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&#273;&#432;a S&amp;P 500 l&ecirc;n 7,000</a> hay kh&ocirc;ng.
K&#7871;t qu&#7843; c&oacute; th&#7875; s&#7869; ph&#7909; thu&#7897;c v&agrave;o thu nh&#7853;p c&#7911;a c&aacute;c c&ocirc;ng ty, d&#7919; li&#7879;u l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t trong t&#432;&#417;ng lai, v&agrave; c&aacute;c quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch c&#7911;a C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang trong nh&#7919;ng tu&#7847;n t&#7899;i.

Tom Lee dự đoán S&P 500 có thể tăng 250 điểm trong tháng 11 khi đợt tăng điểm cuối năm bắt đầu

Tom Lee c&#7911;a Fundstrat d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n S&amp;P 500 c&oacute; th&#7875; t&#259;ng 250 &#273;i&#7875;m trong th&aacute;ng 11, nh&#7901; c&aacute;c nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; qu&#7929; g&#7845;p r&uacute;t &#273;&#7841;t &#273;&#432;&#7907;c chu&#7849;n m&#7921;c. H&#417;n 80% nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; &#273;ang b&#7883; t&#7909;t l&#7841;i sau m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u trong n&#259;m 2025, t&#7841;o c&#417; h&#7897;i cho vi&#7879;c ch&#7841;y &#273;ua hi&#7879;u su&#7845;t &#273;&#7871;n cu&#7889;i n&#259;m.
D&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n n&agrave;y &#273;&#7871;n v&agrave;o th&#7901;i &#273;i&#7875;m quan tr&#7885;ng cho th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng c&#7893; phi&#7871;u. L&#7883;ch s&#7917; nghi&ecirc;ng v&#7873; ph&iacute;a t&#259;ng tr&#432;&#7903;ng cho c&#7893; phi&#7871;u v&agrave;o th&aacute;ng 11, v&agrave; m&#7863;c d&ugrave; c&oacute; lo ng&#7841;i v&#7873; &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute;, c&aacute;c xu h&#432;&#7899;ng kinh t&#7871; v&#297; m&ocirc; l&#7841;i mang &#273;&#7871;n s&#7921; l&#7841;c quan.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-fund-managers-drive-november-rally-expectations">C&aacute;c nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; qu&#7929; th&uacute;c &#273;&#7849;y k&#7923; v&#7885;ng ph&#7909;c h&#7891;i th&aacute;ng 11</h2>

Quan &#273;i&#7875;m l&#7841;c quan c&#7911;a Lee, chia s&#7867; trong m&#7897;t cu&#7897;c ph&#7887;ng v&#7845;n v&#7899;i CNBC, t&#7853;p trung v&agrave;o vi&#7879;c &ldquo;ch&#7841;y &#273;ua hi&#7879;u su&#7845;t&rdquo;. Ph&#7847;n l&#7899;n nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; qu&#7929; &#273;ang l&ugrave;i sau c&aacute;c chu&#7849;n m&#7921;c v&agrave;o n&#259;m 2025, do &#273;&oacute; vi&#7879;c mua v&agrave;o cu&#7889;i n&#259;m th&#432;&#7901;ng gia t&#259;ng khi h&#7885; c&#7889; g&#7855;ng thu h&#7865;p kho&#7843;ng c&aacute;ch. M&ocirc; h&igrave;nh n&agrave;y &#273;&atilde; l&#7883;ch s&#7917; n&acirc;ng cao m&#7913;c l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n trong c&aacute;c giai &#273;o&#7841;n m&ugrave;a m&#7841;nh.
S&amp;P 500 &#273;&atilde; c&oacute; s&#7921; quay l&#7841;i nhanh ch&oacute;ng v&agrave;o n&#259;m 2025. Sau khi gi&#7843;m h&#417;n 15% trong n&#259;m &#273;&#7871;n th&aacute;ng 4, ch&#7881; s&#7889; n&agrave;y hi&#7879;n &#273;ang <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/sp500-weak-breadth-crypto-shift/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">d&#7921; ki&#7871;n k&#7871;t th&uacute;c v&#7899;i hai ch&#7919; s&#7889;</a>.
S&#7921; ph&#7909;c h&#7891;i n&agrave;y &#273;&#432;a n&#259;m 2025 v&agrave;o nh&oacute;m nh&#7919;ng n&#259;m hi&#7871;m hoi, nh&#432; 1982, 2009, v&agrave; 2020, c&#361;ng t&#7915;ng ch&#7913;ng ki&#7871;n nh&#7919;ng &#273;&#7843;o chi&#7873;u t&#432;&#417;ng t&#7921;. Ryan Detrick <a href="https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1985360436091404665" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">&#273;&atilde; ghi ch&uacute;</a> r&#7857;ng m&#7895;i n&#259;m &#273;&oacute; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c theo sau b&#7903;i m&#7897;t n&#259;m kh&aacute;c v&#7899;i m&#7913;c t&#259;ng hai ch&#7919; s&#7889;.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;"decoding="async" alt="S&amp;P 500 slingshot years comparison 2025" class="wp-image-768903 lazy" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/LCWBb8XQhMOKD4obY2x-BnTX5FI=/smart/18e28ef3ae00484dbdc46c99a49e8d5d">So s&aacute;nh n&#259;m &#273;&#7843;o chi&#7873;u c&#7911;a S&amp;P 500 cho th&#7845;y m&ocirc; h&igrave;nh ph&#7909;c h&#7891;i n&#259;m 2025. Ngu&#7891;n: Ryan Detrick

Sau s&aacute;u th&aacute;ng t&#259;ng 22.8%, l&#7883;ch s&#7917; cho th&#7845;y S&amp;P 500 th&#432;&#7901;ng ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c t&#259;ng. L&#7907;i &iacute;ch trung b&igrave;nh trong ba th&aacute;ng sau c&aacute;c &#273;&#7907;t t&#259;ng n&agrave;y l&agrave; 3.4%, trong khi l&#7907;i &iacute;ch 12 th&aacute;ng trung b&igrave;nh g&#7847;n nh&#432; &#273;&#7841;t 10%. &#272;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c n&agrave;y h&#7895; tr&#7907; quan &#273;i&#7875;m c&#7911;a Lee v&#7873; <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/altcoins-to-watch-first-week-november/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">m&#7897;t giai &#273;o&#7841;n ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c m&#7903; r&#7897;ng &#273;&#7871;n n&#259;m 2026</a>.
Th&aacute;ng 11 l&#7883;ch s&#7917; l&agrave; m&#7897;t trong nh&#7919;ng th&aacute;ng t&#7889;t nh&#7845;t cho c&#7893; phi&#7871;u. K&#7875; t&#7915; n&#259;m 1927, S&amp;P 500 &#273;&atilde; t&#259;ng trong 59% c&aacute;c th&aacute;ng 11, &#273;&#7913;ng th&#7913; ba v&#7873; m&#7863;t m&#7841;nh nh&#7845;t v&#7899;i l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n trung b&igrave;nh l&agrave; 1.01%.
<a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/russell-2000-ethereums-correlation-us-crypto-news/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nasdaq 100 v&agrave; Russell 2000</a> &#273;&atilde; &#273;&#432;a ra m&#7913;c t&#259;ng trung b&igrave;nh th&#7853;m ch&iacute; c&ograve;n t&#7889;t h&#417;n l&agrave; 2.47% v&agrave; 2.64% trong kho&#7843;ng th&#7901;i gian n&agrave;y.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;"decoding="async" alt="November S&amp;P 500 historical performance" class="wp-image-768906 lazy" style="width:659px;height:auto" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/1oC-ovCjysE1sal2kfwNhaYm3zg=/smart/d6d6d186bdde40bf9de724dde2d91e39">Th&aacute;ng 11 &#273;&#7913;ng h&agrave;ng th&aacute;ng m&#7841;nh th&#7913; ba cho S&amp;P 500 k&#7875; t&#7915; 1927. Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1985108229584748979" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">The Kobeissi Letter</a>

Khi S&amp;P 500 t&#259;ng h&#417;n 15% trong n&#259;m t&iacute;nh &#273;&#7871;n th&aacute;ng 11, ch&#7881; s&#7889; n&agrave;y &#273;&atilde; c&oacute; m&#7913;c l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n trung b&igrave;nh l&agrave; 2.7%.
Trong n&#259;m &#273;&#7847;u ti&ecirc;n c&#7911;a chu k&#7923; t&#7893;ng th&#7889;ng M&#7929;, th&aacute;ng 11 c&#361;ng m&#7841;nh, v&#7899;i S&amp;P 500 t&#259;ng 67% th&#7901;i gian v&#7899;i m&#7913;c trung b&igrave;nh 0.67%. Nh&#7919;ng m&ocirc; h&igrave;nh n&agrave;y c&#7911;ng c&#7889; k&#7923; v&#7885;ng c&#7911;a Lee v&#7873; nhi&#7873;u l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n h&#417;n.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-ai-and-corporate-margins-offset-macro-headwinds">AI v&agrave; bi&ecirc;n l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n doanh nghi&#7879;p b&ugrave; &#273;&#7855;p kh&oacute; kh&#259;n v&#297; m&ocirc;</h2>

Lee nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh r&#7857;ng l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n v&agrave; bi&ecirc;n l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n doanh nghi&#7879;p &#273;ang t&#259;ng nh&#7901; nh&#7919;ng th&agrave;nh t&#7921;u t&#7915; tr&iacute; tu&#7879; nh&acirc;n t&#7841;o tr&ecirc;n nhi&#7873;u ng&agrave;nh. D&ugrave; c&oacute; lo ng&#7841;i v&#7873; thu&#7871; quan v&agrave; <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/powell-crypto-outflows-solana-inflows/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang</a>, nh&#7919;ng y&#7871;u t&#7889; c&#417; b&#7843;n n&agrave;y h&#7895; tr&#7907; quan &#273;i&#7875;m l&#7841;c quan c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng. AI hi&#7879;n &#273;ang l&agrave; &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c quan tr&#7885;ng cho l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n, gi&uacute;p c&aacute;c c&ocirc;ng ty duy tr&igrave; l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n trong th&#7901;i k&#7923; kinh t&#7871; kh&ocirc;ng ch&#7855;c ch&#7855;n.
C&aacute;c xu h&#432;&#7899;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#361;ng c&#7843;i thi&#7879;n th&ecirc;m t&igrave;nh h&igrave;nh t&iacute;ch c&#7921;c. L&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#7889;t l&otilde;i &#273;ang gi&#7843;m nhanh h&#417;n d&#7921; ki&#7871;n, v&agrave; chi ph&iacute; nh&agrave; &#7903; &#273;&atilde; &#7893;n &#273;&#7883;nh. &#272;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y l&agrave;m gi&#7843;m &aacute;p l&#7921;c l&ecirc;n ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch ti&#7873;n t&#7879;, cho ph&eacute;p C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang c&oacute; th&ecirc;m linh ho&#7841;t v&agrave; gi&#7843;m thi&#7875;u kh&#7843; n&#259;ng t&#259;ng l&atilde;i su&#7845;t m&#7841;nh c&oacute; th&#7875; l&agrave;m ng&#432;ng &#273;&agrave; t&#259;ng tr&#432;&#7903;ng.
Trong khi &#273;&oacute;, th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng ti&#7873;n &#273;i&#7879;n t&#7917; &#273;ang th&#7875; hi&#7879;n s&#7921; &#7893;n &#273;&#7883;nh c&oacute; th&#7875; b&#7893; sung cho l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n c&#7893; phi&#7871;u. <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/thi-truong-tien-dien-tu-17-6/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bitcoin v&agrave; Ethereum</a> &#273;ang c&#7911;ng c&#7889;, nh&#432;ng doanh thu &#7913;ng d&#7909;ng cao v&agrave; kh&#7889;i l&#432;&#7907;ng stablecoin gia t&#259;ng b&aacute;o hi&#7879;u c&aacute;c y&#7871;u t&#7889; c&#417; b&#7843;n m&#7841;nh m&#7869;. Nh&#7919;ng xu h&#432;&#7899;ng n&agrave;y &#273;&#7873; xu&#7845;t m&#7897;t kh&#7843; n&#259;ng t&#259;ng gi&aacute; v&agrave;o cu&#7889;i n&#259;m c&oacute; th&#7875; n&acirc;ng cao ni&#7873;m tin c&#7911;a nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i c&aacute;c t&agrave;i s&#7843;n r&#7911;i ro.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-valuation-concerns-persist-amid-optimism">M&#7889;i lo ng&#7841;i v&#7873; &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute; v&#7851;n t&#7891;n t&#7841;i gi&#7919;a l&uacute;c l&#7841;c quan</h2>

Kh&ocirc;ng ph&#7843;i t&#7845;t c&#7843; chuy&ecirc;n gia &#273;&#7873;u &#273;&#7891;ng t&igrave;nh v&#7899;i s&#7921; l&#7841;c quan c&#7911;a Lee. S&amp;P 500 hi&#7879;n giao d&#7883;ch &#7903; m&#7913;c 40 l&#7847;n d&ograve;ng ti&#7873;n t&#7921; do, ch&#7881; th&#7845;p h&#417;n 25% so v&#7899;i &#273;&#7881;nh dot-com l&agrave; 50 l&#7847;n.
M&#7913;c n&agrave;y g&#7847;n nh&#432; g&#7845;p &#273;&ocirc;i trung b&igrave;nh th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng t&#259;ng hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i, t&#7841;o ra c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o cho m&#7897;t s&#7889; ng&#432;&#7901;i cho r&#7857;ng &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute; &#273;ang b&#7883; k&eacute;o gi&atilde;n gi&#7889;ng nh&#432; cu&#7889;i nh&#7919;ng n&#259;m 1990.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;"decoding="async" alt="S&amp;P 500 price to free cash flow ratio 2025" class="wp-image-768904 lazy" style="width:877px;height:auto" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/RCZaACEgym2lcunjNRqljTOs-Jc=/smart/7553a12ae80e4bb0be80616c712011d9">S&amp;P 500 giao d&#7883;ch &#7903; m&#7913;c 40x d&ograve;ng ti&#7873;n t&#7921; do, ti&#7871;n &#273;&#7871;n m&#7913;c cao th&#7901;i k&#7923; dot-com. Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://x.com/Ross__Hendricks/status/1984692773078069634" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">Ross Hendricks</a>

C&aacute;c ch&#7881; s&#7889; CAPE v&#7851;n &#7903; m&#7913;c cao, khi&#7871;n c&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; t&#7853;p trung v&agrave;o gi&aacute; tr&#7883; c&#7849;n th&#7853;n h&#417;n. Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, Lee ph&#7843;n b&aacute;c r&#7857;ng n&#7873;n t&#7843;ng m&#7841;nh v&agrave; t&#259;ng tr&#432;&#7903;ng l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n nh&#7901; AI bi&#7879;n minh cho c&aacute;c nh&acirc;n t&#7889; nh&acirc;n cao h&#417;n. &Ocirc;ng l&#7853;p lu&#7853;n r&#7857;ng c&aacute;c ch&#7881; s&#7889; truy&#7873;n th&#7889;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; kh&ocirc;ng ho&agrave;n to&agrave;n ph&#7843;n &aacute;nh &#273;&#432;&#7907;c t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng c&#7911;a AI l&ecirc;n l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n.
Cu&#7897;c tranh lu&#7853;n n&agrave;y ti&#7871;t l&#7897; s&#7921; c&#259;ng th&#7859;ng gi&#7919;a s&#7921; l&#7841;c quan do &#273;&#7897;ng l&#432;&#7907;ng v&agrave; s&#7921; th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute;. M&#7863;c d&ugrave; Lee t&#7921; tin v&agrave;o c&aacute;c y&#7871;u t&#7889; th&uacute;c &#273;&#7849;y ng&#7855;n h&#7841;n, nh&#7919;ng ng&#432;&#7901;i ho&agrave;i nghi c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o r&#7857;ng nh&acirc;n t&#7889; nh&acirc;n cao kh&ocirc;ng &#273;&#7875; l&#7841;i nhi&#7873;u ch&#7895; n&#7871;u &#273;i&#7873;u ki&#7879;n tr&#7903; n&ecirc;n x&#7845;u h&#417;n ho&#7863;c l&#7907;i nhu&#7853;n kh&ocirc;ng &#273;&#7841;t k&#7923; v&#7885;ng.
Khi th&aacute;ng 11 ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c, c&acirc;u h&#7887;i quan tr&#7885;ng l&agrave; li&#7879;u s&#7921; c&#7845;p b&aacute;ch c&#7911;a c&aacute;c nh&agrave; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; qu&#7929; v&agrave; &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c theo m&ugrave;a c&oacute; <a href="https://beincrypto.com/sp500-weak-breadth-crypto-shift/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&#273;&#432;a S&amp;P 500 l&ecirc;n 7,000</a> hay kh&ocirc;ng.
K&#7871;t qu&#7843; c&oacute; th&#7875; s&#7869; ph&#7909; thu&#7897;c v&agrave;o thu nh&#7853;p c&#7911;a c&aacute;c c&ocirc;ng ty, d&#7919; li&#7879;u l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t trong t&#432;&#417;ng lai, v&agrave; c&aacute;c quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch c&#7911;a C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang trong nh&#7919;ng tu&#7847;n t&#7899;i.