Khi th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng chu&#7849;n b&#7883; &#273;&oacute;n nh&#7853;n d&#7919; li&#7879;u Ch&#7881; S&#7889; Gi&aacute; Ti&ecirc;u D&ugrave;ng (CPI) th&aacute;ng 11, Th&#7889;ng &#273;&#7889;c C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang M&#7929; (Fed) Stephen Miran v&#7915;a l&ecirc;n ti&#7871;ng ph&#7843;n b&aacute;c &yacute; ki&#7871;n cho r&#7857;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t v&#7851;n dai d&#7859;ng &#7903; m&#7913;c cao h&#417;n m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u.
Nh&#7919;ng ph&aacute;t bi&#7875;u n&agrave;y &#273;&#432;&#7907;c &#273;&#432;a ra ch&#7881; v&agrave;i ng&agrave;y tr&#432;&#7899;c khi s&#7889; li&#7879;u CPI s&#7869; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c c&ocirc;ng b&#7889; v&agrave;o th&#7913; N&#259;m. D&#7919; li&#7879;u kinh t&#7871; M&#7929; n&agrave;y c&oacute; kh&#7843; n&#259;ng &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng t&#7899;i t&acirc;m l&yacute; c&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; Bitcoin.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-stephen-miran-the-fed-is-fighting-the-wrong-inflation-ahead-of-cpi">Stephen Miran: Fed &#273;ang ch&#7889;ng l&#7841;i lo&#7841;i l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t sai tr&#432;&#7899;c th&#7873;m CPI</h2>

D&#7919; li&#7879;u t&#7915; CME FedWatch Tool cho th&#7845;y th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng &#273;ang c&oacute; s&#7921; &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh l&#7841;i k&#7923; v&#7885;ng v&#7873; l&atilde;i su&#7845;t, v&#7899;i ph&#7847;n l&#7899;n c&aacute;c nh&agrave; giao d&#7883;ch &#273;&#7863;t c&#432;&#7907;c kh&#7843; n&#259;ng 75.6% Fed s&#7869; gi&#7919; nguy&ecirc;n l&atilde;i su&#7845;t trong cu&#7897;c h&#7885;p th&aacute;ng 01/2026.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;" decoding="async" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/K9jIAexLjr1eg9-6Q-JuwU6Io0M=/smart/3064aea65d154a2495a313cf7b22eca1" alt="Interest Rate Probabilities" class="wp-image-782669">X&aacute;c su&#7845;t thay &#273;&#7893;i l&atilde;i su&#7845;t. Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">CME FedWatch Tool</a>

Trong b&#7889;i c&#7843;nh n&agrave;y, &ocirc;ng Miran cho r&#7857;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#417; b&#7843;n th&#7921;c t&#7871; &#273;&atilde; ti&#7871;n s&aacute;t r&#7845;t g&#7847;n m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u 2% c&#7911;a Fed. Theo &ocirc;ng, nguy&ecirc;n nh&acirc;n khi&#7871;n con s&#7889; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t t&#7893;ng th&#7875; v&#432;&#7907;t m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u ch&#7911; y&#7871;u l&agrave; do nh&#7919;ng sai l&#7879;ch v&#7873; m&#7863;t th&#7889;ng k&ecirc; h&#417;n l&agrave; do nhu c&#7847;u th&#7921;c t&#7871; t&#259;ng cao.
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&ldquo;L&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#417; b&#7843;n th&#7921;c t&#7871; &#273;&atilde; ti&#7871;n s&aacute;t m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u 2% c&#7911;a Fed,&rdquo; &ocirc;ng Miran <a href="https://x.com/SteveMiran/status/2000699142838890645" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">chia s&#7867;</a> tr&ecirc;n X. &ldquo;Ph&#7847;n l&#7899;n l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t v&#432;&#7907;t m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u l&agrave; do s&#7921; b&#7845;t th&#432;&#7901;ng trong qu&aacute; tr&igrave;nh &#273;o l&#432;&#7901;ng th&#7889;ng k&ecirc;, ch&#7913; kh&ocirc;ng ph&#7843;i do nhu c&#7847;u ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng t&#259;ng l&ecirc;n.&rdquo;
</blockquote>

Tr&#7885;ng t&acirc;m trong l&#7853;p lu&#7853;n c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng Miran l&agrave; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t li&ecirc;n quan &#273;&#7871;n chi ph&iacute; nh&agrave; &#7903;. &#272;&acirc;y l&agrave; m&#7897;t trong nh&#7919;ng y&#7871;u t&#7889; l&#7899;n v&agrave; dai d&#7859;ng nh&#7845;t t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng t&#7899;i ch&#7881; s&#7889; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#417; b&#7843;n.
&Ocirc;ng nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh ch&#7881; s&#7889; <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/experts-warn-against-fed-rate-cuts/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)</a> m&agrave; Fed &#432;u ti&ecirc;n s&#7917; d&#7909;ng bao g&#7891;m to&agrave;n b&#7897; chi ph&iacute; nh&agrave; &#7903; c&#7911;a c&aacute;c h&#7897; thu&ecirc; nh&agrave;, c&oacute; ngh&#297;a l&agrave; s&#7869; b&#7883; tr&#7877; so v&#7899;i m&#7863;t b&#7857;ng gi&aacute; thu&ecirc; th&#7921;c t&#7871; tr&ecirc;n th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng, v&#7889;n ch&#7881; &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh khi h&#7907;p &#273;&#7891;ng m&#7899;i &#273;&#432;&#7907;c k&yacute; l&#7841;i. Theo &ocirc;ng Miran, s&#7921; ch&#7853;m tr&#7877; n&agrave;y &#273;ang l&agrave;m cho b&#7913;c tranh l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t tr&#7903; n&ecirc;n m&eacute;o m&oacute; so v&#7899;i th&#7921;c t&#7871;.
&Ocirc;ng Miran c&#361;ng n&oacute;i v&#7873; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t trong c&aacute;c d&#7883;ch v&#7909; kh&ocirc;ng li&ecirc;n quan &#273;&#7871;n nh&agrave; &#7903;, l&#7845;y v&iacute; d&#7909; ti&ecirc;u bi&#7875;u nh&#432; ph&iacute; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; danh m&#7909;c &#273;&#7847;u t&#432;. <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/who-is-stephen-miran-trumps-crypto-friendly-pick-for-fed-governor/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Theo &ocirc;ng</a>, nh&#7919;ng kho&#7843;n ph&iacute; n&agrave;y &#273;ang &ldquo;th&#7893;i ph&#7891;ng&rdquo; ch&#7881; s&#7889; PCE c&#7889;t l&otilde;i d&ugrave; th&#7921;c t&#7871; &#273;ang c&oacute; xu h&#432;&#7899;ng gi&#7843;m ph&iacute; trong ng&agrave;nh qu&#7843;n l&yacute; t&agrave;i s&#7843;n.
B&#7903;i v&igrave; c&aacute;c kho&#7843;n ph&iacute; n&agrave;y &#273;&#432;&#7907;c t&iacute;nh tr&ecirc;n t&#7893;ng gi&aacute; tr&#7883; t&agrave;i s&#7843;n qu&#7843;n l&yacute;, n&ecirc;n khi th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng ch&#7913;ng kho&aacute;n t&#259;ng, chi ph&iacute; b&igrave;nh qu&acirc;n t&iacute;nh to&aacute;n c&oacute; th&#7875; t&#259;ng l&ecirc;n, k&#7875; c&#7843; khi th&#7921;c ch&#7845;t ng&#432;&#7901;i ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng &#273;ang ph&#7843;i tr&#7843; &iacute;t h&#417;n.
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&ldquo;S&#7869; l&agrave; sai l&#7847;m n&#7871;u ch&uacute;ng ta ch&#7881; ch&#7841;y theo nh&#7919;ng b&#7845;t th&#432;&#7901;ng v&#7873; th&#7889;ng k&ecirc; m&agrave; qu&ecirc;n &#273;i gi&aacute; c&#7843; th&#7921;c t&#7871; d&agrave;nh cho ng&#432;&#7901;i ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng&rdquo;, &ocirc;ng Miran <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/miran20251215a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o</a> trong m&#7897;t b&agrave;i ph&aacute;t bi&#7875;u, cho r&#7857;ng ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch c&oacute; th&#7875; tr&#7903; n&ecirc;n qu&aacute; c&#7913;ng nh&#7855;c n&#7871;u ph&#7843;n &#7913;ng v&#7899;i c&aacute;c sai l&#7879;ch n&agrave;y.
</blockquote>

<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-rethinking-tariffs-and-goods-inflation-as-forward-looking-data-backs-disinflation">Xem l&#7841;i t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng c&#7911;a thu&#7871; quan v&agrave; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t h&agrave;ng h&oacute;a khi d&#7919; li&#7879;u d&#7921; b&aacute;o &#7911;ng h&#7897; xu h&#432;&#7899;ng gi&#7843;m ph&aacute;t</h2>

V&#7873; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t h&agrave;ng h&oacute;a, &ocirc;ng Miran c&#361;ng b&aacute;c b&#7887; quan &#273;i&#7875;m cho r&#7857;ng c&aacute;c <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/trump-tariffs-pump-and-dump-crypto-and-ai-stocks/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">bi&#7879;n ph&aacute;p &aacute;p thu&#7871; c&#7911;a M&#7929;</a> l&agrave; nguy&ecirc;n nh&acirc;n ch&iacute;nh khi&#7871;n gi&aacute; h&agrave;ng h&oacute;a t&#259;ng g&#7847;n &#273;&acirc;y.
D&#7921;a v&agrave;o nghi&ecirc;n c&#7913;u v&#7873; &#273;&#7897; co gi&atilde;n trong th&#432;&#417;ng m&#7841;i qu&#7889;c t&#7871;, &ocirc;ng cho r&#7857;ng g&aacute;nh n&#7863;ng thu&#7871; quan ch&#7911; y&#7871;u r&#417;i v&agrave;o c&aacute;c nh&agrave; xu&#7845;t kh&#7849;u, do &#273;&oacute; &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng t&#7899;i gi&aacute; ng&#432;&#7901;i ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng ch&#7881; l&agrave; r&#7845;t nh&#7887; v&agrave; kh&#7843; n&#259;ng ch&#7881; mang t&iacute;nh t&#7841;m th&#7901;i.
Ngay c&#7843; v&#7899;i c&aacute;c gi&#7843; &#273;&#7883;nh th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng nh&#7845;t, &ocirc;ng &#432;&#7899;c t&iacute;nh t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng c&#7911;a thu&#7871; quan n&agrave;y l&ecirc;n gi&aacute; ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng ch&#7881; &#7903; m&#7913;c kho&#7843;ng 0.2%. Nh&igrave;n chung, hi&#7879;u &#7913;ng n&agrave;y l&agrave; r&#7845;t nh&#7887;, g&#7847;n nh&#432; kh&ocirc;ng &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng t&#7899;i l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t l&acirc;u d&agrave;i.
Quan &#273;i&#7875;m c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng Miran c&#361;ng &#273;&#432;&#7907;c chia s&#7867; b&#7903;i Anna Wong t&#7915; Bloomberg Economics, ng&#432;&#7901;i cho bi&#7871;t c&aacute;c ch&#7881; s&#7889; d&#7921; b&aacute;o tr&#432;&#7899;c cho th&#7845;y l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t s&#7869; ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c gi&#7843;m trong 6 th&aacute;ng t&#7899;i.
B&agrave; Wong cho bi&#7871;t c&aacute;c m&#7863;t h&agrave;ng trong nh&oacute;m CPI l&otilde;i &#273;ang ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c xu h&#432;&#7899;ng gi&#7843;m, kh&#7843; n&#259;ng &#273;&#7871;n gi&#7919;a n&#259;m 2026, &#273;&#7891;ng th&#7901;i cho r&#7857;ng th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng hi&#7879;n v&#7851;n &#273;ang &#273;&aacute;nh gi&aacute; th&#7845;p <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/fed-rate-cuts-recession-layoffs-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">quy m&ocirc; c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t v&#7873; l&acirc;u d&agrave;i</a>.
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&ldquo;Fed c&oacute; th&#7875; ti&#7871;n h&agrave;nh c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t v&agrave;o n&#259;m sau&rdquo;, b&agrave; Wong <a href="https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1998786643919036564?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">vi&#7871;t</a> tr&ecirc;n X, cho r&#7857;ng n&#7871;u c&aacute;c t&iacute;n hi&#7879;u n&agrave;y &#273;&uacute;ng, k&#7923; v&#7885;ng v&#7873; vi&#7879;c n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng trong n&#259;m 2026 &#273;ang qu&aacute; th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng.
</blockquote>

Nh&#7919;ng &yacute; ki&#7871;n tr&ecirc;n c&agrave;ng l&agrave;m t&#259;ng th&ecirc;m tranh lu&#7853;n trong n&#7897;i b&#7897; Fed v&#7873; vi&#7879;c li&#7879;u c&aacute;c nh&agrave; ho&#7841;ch &#273;&#7883;nh ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch c&oacute; &#273;ang t&#7853;p trung v&agrave;o &aacute;p l&#7921;c l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t t&#7915; n&#259;m 2022 thay v&igrave; c&#259;n c&#7913; v&agrave;o &#273;i&#7873;u ki&#7879;n th&#7921;c t&#7871; hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i hay kh&ocirc;ng.
V&#7899;i <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-boj-rate-hike-us-data-risk/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">CPI s&#7869; ra m&#7855;t v&agrave;o th&#7913; N&#259;m</a>, d&#7919; li&#7879;u n&agrave;y s&#7869; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c theo d&otilde;i s&aacute;t &#273;&#7875; xem li&#7879;u nh&#7853;n &#273;&#7883;nh c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng Miran v&#7873; vi&#7879;c l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t b&#7883; ph&oacute;ng &#273;&#7841;i v&agrave; ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch &#273;&atilde; &#273;&#7911; ch&#7863;t ch&#7869; cho n&#259;m 2026 c&oacute; th&#7921;c s&#7921; &#273;&uacute;ng hay kh&ocirc;ng.

Thị trường điều chỉnh kỳ vọng lãi suất khi Miran đặt dấu hỏi về câu chuyện lạm phát trước khi CPI tháng 11 công bố

Khi th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng chu&#7849;n b&#7883; &#273;&oacute;n nh&#7853;n d&#7919; li&#7879;u Ch&#7881; S&#7889; Gi&aacute; Ti&ecirc;u D&ugrave;ng (CPI) th&aacute;ng 11, Th&#7889;ng &#273;&#7889;c C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang M&#7929; (Fed) Stephen Miran v&#7915;a l&ecirc;n ti&#7871;ng ph&#7843;n b&aacute;c &yacute; ki&#7871;n cho r&#7857;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t v&#7851;n dai d&#7859;ng &#7903; m&#7913;c cao h&#417;n m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u.
Nh&#7919;ng ph&aacute;t bi&#7875;u n&agrave;y &#273;&#432;&#7907;c &#273;&#432;a ra ch&#7881; v&agrave;i ng&agrave;y tr&#432;&#7899;c khi s&#7889; li&#7879;u CPI s&#7869; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c c&ocirc;ng b&#7889; v&agrave;o th&#7913; N&#259;m. D&#7919; li&#7879;u kinh t&#7871; M&#7929; n&agrave;y c&oacute; kh&#7843; n&#259;ng &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng t&#7899;i t&acirc;m l&yacute; c&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; Bitcoin.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-stephen-miran-the-fed-is-fighting-the-wrong-inflation-ahead-of-cpi">Stephen Miran: Fed &#273;ang ch&#7889;ng l&#7841;i lo&#7841;i l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t sai tr&#432;&#7899;c th&#7873;m CPI</h2>

D&#7919; li&#7879;u t&#7915; CME FedWatch Tool cho th&#7845;y th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng &#273;ang c&oacute; s&#7921; &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh l&#7841;i k&#7923; v&#7885;ng v&#7873; l&atilde;i su&#7845;t, v&#7899;i ph&#7847;n l&#7899;n c&aacute;c nh&agrave; giao d&#7883;ch &#273;&#7863;t c&#432;&#7907;c kh&#7843; n&#259;ng 75.6% Fed s&#7869; gi&#7919; nguy&ecirc;n l&atilde;i su&#7845;t trong cu&#7897;c h&#7885;p th&aacute;ng 01/2026.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;"decoding="async" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/K9jIAexLjr1eg9-6Q-JuwU6Io0M=/smart/3064aea65d154a2495a313cf7b22eca1" alt="Interest Rate Probabilities" class="wp-image-782669">X&aacute;c su&#7845;t thay &#273;&#7893;i l&atilde;i su&#7845;t. Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">CME FedWatch Tool</a>

Trong b&#7889;i c&#7843;nh n&agrave;y, &ocirc;ng Miran cho r&#7857;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#417; b&#7843;n th&#7921;c t&#7871; &#273;&atilde; ti&#7871;n s&aacute;t r&#7845;t g&#7847;n m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u 2% c&#7911;a Fed. Theo &ocirc;ng, nguy&ecirc;n nh&acirc;n khi&#7871;n con s&#7889; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t t&#7893;ng th&#7875; v&#432;&#7907;t m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u ch&#7911; y&#7871;u l&agrave; do nh&#7919;ng sai l&#7879;ch v&#7873; m&#7863;t th&#7889;ng k&ecirc; h&#417;n l&agrave; do nhu c&#7847;u th&#7921;c t&#7871; t&#259;ng cao.
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&ldquo;L&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#417; b&#7843;n th&#7921;c t&#7871; &#273;&atilde; ti&#7871;n s&aacute;t m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u 2% c&#7911;a Fed,&rdquo; &ocirc;ng Miran <a href="https://x.com/SteveMiran/status/2000699142838890645" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">chia s&#7867;</a> tr&ecirc;n X. &ldquo;Ph&#7847;n l&#7899;n l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t v&#432;&#7907;t m&#7909;c ti&ecirc;u l&agrave; do s&#7921; b&#7845;t th&#432;&#7901;ng trong qu&aacute; tr&igrave;nh &#273;o l&#432;&#7901;ng th&#7889;ng k&ecirc;, ch&#7913; kh&ocirc;ng ph&#7843;i do nhu c&#7847;u ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng t&#259;ng l&ecirc;n.&rdquo;
</blockquote>

Tr&#7885;ng t&acirc;m trong l&#7853;p lu&#7853;n c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng Miran l&agrave; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t li&ecirc;n quan &#273;&#7871;n chi ph&iacute; nh&agrave; &#7903;. &#272;&acirc;y l&agrave; m&#7897;t trong nh&#7919;ng y&#7871;u t&#7889; l&#7899;n v&agrave; dai d&#7859;ng nh&#7845;t t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng t&#7899;i ch&#7881; s&#7889; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#417; b&#7843;n.
&Ocirc;ng nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh ch&#7881; s&#7889; <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/experts-warn-against-fed-rate-cuts/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)</a> m&agrave; Fed &#432;u ti&ecirc;n s&#7917; d&#7909;ng bao g&#7891;m to&agrave;n b&#7897; chi ph&iacute; nh&agrave; &#7903; c&#7911;a c&aacute;c h&#7897; thu&ecirc; nh&agrave;, c&oacute; ngh&#297;a l&agrave; s&#7869; b&#7883; tr&#7877; so v&#7899;i m&#7863;t b&#7857;ng gi&aacute; thu&ecirc; th&#7921;c t&#7871; tr&ecirc;n th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng, v&#7889;n ch&#7881; &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh khi h&#7907;p &#273;&#7891;ng m&#7899;i &#273;&#432;&#7907;c k&yacute; l&#7841;i. Theo &ocirc;ng Miran, s&#7921; ch&#7853;m tr&#7877; n&agrave;y &#273;ang l&agrave;m cho b&#7913;c tranh l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t tr&#7903; n&ecirc;n m&eacute;o m&oacute; so v&#7899;i th&#7921;c t&#7871;.
&Ocirc;ng Miran c&#361;ng n&oacute;i v&#7873; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t trong c&aacute;c d&#7883;ch v&#7909; kh&ocirc;ng li&ecirc;n quan &#273;&#7871;n nh&agrave; &#7903;, l&#7845;y v&iacute; d&#7909; ti&ecirc;u bi&#7875;u nh&#432; ph&iacute; qu&#7843;n l&yacute; danh m&#7909;c &#273;&#7847;u t&#432;. <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/who-is-stephen-miran-trumps-crypto-friendly-pick-for-fed-governor/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Theo &ocirc;ng</a>, nh&#7919;ng kho&#7843;n ph&iacute; n&agrave;y &#273;ang &ldquo;th&#7893;i ph&#7891;ng&rdquo; ch&#7881; s&#7889; PCE c&#7889;t l&otilde;i d&ugrave; th&#7921;c t&#7871; &#273;ang c&oacute; xu h&#432;&#7899;ng gi&#7843;m ph&iacute; trong ng&agrave;nh qu&#7843;n l&yacute; t&agrave;i s&#7843;n.
B&#7903;i v&igrave; c&aacute;c kho&#7843;n ph&iacute; n&agrave;y &#273;&#432;&#7907;c t&iacute;nh tr&ecirc;n t&#7893;ng gi&aacute; tr&#7883; t&agrave;i s&#7843;n qu&#7843;n l&yacute;, n&ecirc;n khi th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng ch&#7913;ng kho&aacute;n t&#259;ng, chi ph&iacute; b&igrave;nh qu&acirc;n t&iacute;nh to&aacute;n c&oacute; th&#7875; t&#259;ng l&ecirc;n, k&#7875; c&#7843; khi th&#7921;c ch&#7845;t ng&#432;&#7901;i ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng &#273;ang ph&#7843;i tr&#7843; &iacute;t h&#417;n.
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&ldquo;S&#7869; l&agrave; sai l&#7847;m n&#7871;u ch&uacute;ng ta ch&#7881; ch&#7841;y theo nh&#7919;ng b&#7845;t th&#432;&#7901;ng v&#7873; th&#7889;ng k&ecirc; m&agrave; qu&ecirc;n &#273;i gi&aacute; c&#7843; th&#7921;c t&#7871; d&agrave;nh cho ng&#432;&#7901;i ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng&rdquo;, &ocirc;ng Miran <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/miran20251215a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o</a> trong m&#7897;t b&agrave;i ph&aacute;t bi&#7875;u, cho r&#7857;ng ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch c&oacute; th&#7875; tr&#7903; n&ecirc;n qu&aacute; c&#7913;ng nh&#7855;c n&#7871;u ph&#7843;n &#7913;ng v&#7899;i c&aacute;c sai l&#7879;ch n&agrave;y.
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<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-rethinking-tariffs-and-goods-inflation-as-forward-looking-data-backs-disinflation">Xem l&#7841;i t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng c&#7911;a thu&#7871; quan v&agrave; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t h&agrave;ng h&oacute;a khi d&#7919; li&#7879;u d&#7921; b&aacute;o &#7911;ng h&#7897; xu h&#432;&#7899;ng gi&#7843;m ph&aacute;t</h2>

V&#7873; l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t h&agrave;ng h&oacute;a, &ocirc;ng Miran c&#361;ng b&aacute;c b&#7887; quan &#273;i&#7875;m cho r&#7857;ng c&aacute;c <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/trump-tariffs-pump-and-dump-crypto-and-ai-stocks/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">bi&#7879;n ph&aacute;p &aacute;p thu&#7871; c&#7911;a M&#7929;</a> l&agrave; nguy&ecirc;n nh&acirc;n ch&iacute;nh khi&#7871;n gi&aacute; h&agrave;ng h&oacute;a t&#259;ng g&#7847;n &#273;&acirc;y.
D&#7921;a v&agrave;o nghi&ecirc;n c&#7913;u v&#7873; &#273;&#7897; co gi&atilde;n trong th&#432;&#417;ng m&#7841;i qu&#7889;c t&#7871;, &ocirc;ng cho r&#7857;ng g&aacute;nh n&#7863;ng thu&#7871; quan ch&#7911; y&#7871;u r&#417;i v&agrave;o c&aacute;c nh&agrave; xu&#7845;t kh&#7849;u, do &#273;&oacute; &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng t&#7899;i gi&aacute; ng&#432;&#7901;i ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng ch&#7881; l&agrave; r&#7845;t nh&#7887; v&agrave; kh&#7843; n&#259;ng ch&#7881; mang t&iacute;nh t&#7841;m th&#7901;i.
Ngay c&#7843; v&#7899;i c&aacute;c gi&#7843; &#273;&#7883;nh th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng nh&#7845;t, &ocirc;ng &#432;&#7899;c t&iacute;nh t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng c&#7911;a thu&#7871; quan n&agrave;y l&ecirc;n gi&aacute; ti&ecirc;u d&ugrave;ng ch&#7881; &#7903; m&#7913;c kho&#7843;ng 0.2%. Nh&igrave;n chung, hi&#7879;u &#7913;ng n&agrave;y l&agrave; r&#7845;t nh&#7887;, g&#7847;n nh&#432; kh&ocirc;ng &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng t&#7899;i l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t l&acirc;u d&agrave;i.
Quan &#273;i&#7875;m c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng Miran c&#361;ng &#273;&#432;&#7907;c chia s&#7867; b&#7903;i Anna Wong t&#7915; Bloomberg Economics, ng&#432;&#7901;i cho bi&#7871;t c&aacute;c ch&#7881; s&#7889; d&#7921; b&aacute;o tr&#432;&#7899;c cho th&#7845;y l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t s&#7869; ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c gi&#7843;m trong 6 th&aacute;ng t&#7899;i.
B&agrave; Wong cho bi&#7871;t c&aacute;c m&#7863;t h&agrave;ng trong nh&oacute;m CPI l&otilde;i &#273;ang ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c xu h&#432;&#7899;ng gi&#7843;m, kh&#7843; n&#259;ng &#273;&#7871;n gi&#7919;a n&#259;m 2026, &#273;&#7891;ng th&#7901;i cho r&#7857;ng th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng hi&#7879;n v&#7851;n &#273;ang &#273;&aacute;nh gi&aacute; th&#7845;p <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/fed-rate-cuts-recession-layoffs-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">quy m&ocirc; c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t v&#7873; l&acirc;u d&agrave;i</a>.
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&ldquo;Fed c&oacute; th&#7875; ti&#7871;n h&agrave;nh c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t v&agrave;o n&#259;m sau&rdquo;, b&agrave; Wong <a href="https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1998786643919036564?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">vi&#7871;t</a> tr&ecirc;n X, cho r&#7857;ng n&#7871;u c&aacute;c t&iacute;n hi&#7879;u n&agrave;y &#273;&uacute;ng, k&#7923; v&#7885;ng v&#7873; vi&#7879;c n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng trong n&#259;m 2026 &#273;ang qu&aacute; th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng.
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Nh&#7919;ng &yacute; ki&#7871;n tr&ecirc;n c&agrave;ng l&agrave;m t&#259;ng th&ecirc;m tranh lu&#7853;n trong n&#7897;i b&#7897; Fed v&#7873; vi&#7879;c li&#7879;u c&aacute;c nh&agrave; ho&#7841;ch &#273;&#7883;nh ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch c&oacute; &#273;ang t&#7853;p trung v&agrave;o &aacute;p l&#7921;c l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t t&#7915; n&#259;m 2022 thay v&igrave; c&#259;n c&#7913; v&agrave;o &#273;i&#7873;u ki&#7879;n th&#7921;c t&#7871; hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i hay kh&ocirc;ng.
V&#7899;i <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-boj-rate-hike-us-data-risk/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">CPI s&#7869; ra m&#7855;t v&agrave;o th&#7913; N&#259;m</a>, d&#7919; li&#7879;u n&agrave;y s&#7869; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c theo d&otilde;i s&aacute;t &#273;&#7875; xem li&#7879;u nh&#7853;n &#273;&#7883;nh c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng Miran v&#7873; vi&#7879;c l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t b&#7883; ph&oacute;ng &#273;&#7841;i v&agrave; ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch &#273;&atilde; &#273;&#7911; ch&#7863;t ch&#7869; cho n&#259;m 2026 c&oacute; th&#7921;c s&#7921; &#273;&uacute;ng hay kh&ocirc;ng.