Vi&#7879;c C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang M&#7929; (Fed) c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t 25 &#273;i&#7875;m c&#417; b&#7843;n (bp), l&#7847;n &#273;&#7847;u ti&ecirc;n trong n&#259;m 2025, &#273;&atilde; t&#7841;o ra nhi&#7873;u cu&#7897;c tranh lu&#7853;n tr&ecirc;n th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng trong nhi&#7873;u tu&#7847;n.
M&#7863;c d&ugrave; &#273;&#7897;ng th&aacute;i n&agrave;y &#273;&atilde; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n r&#7897;ng r&atilde;i, nh&#432;ng gi&#7885;ng &#273;i&#7879;u &ocirc;n h&ograve;a c&#7911;a Ch&#7911; t&#7883;ch Jerome Powell t&#7841;i cu&#7897;c h&#7885;p b&aacute;o h&ocirc;m qua v&agrave; bi&#7875;u &#273;&#7891; dot-plot chia r&#7869; m&#7841;nh m&#7869; c&#7911;a Fed &#273;&atilde; khi&#7871;n c&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; t&#7921; h&#7887;i &#273;i&#7873;u g&igrave; s&#7869; x&#7843;y ra ti&#7871;p theo.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-powell-signals-a-risk-management-pivot">Powell b&aacute;o hi&#7879;u s&#7921; chuy&#7875;n h&#432;&#7899;ng qu&#7843;n l&yacute; r&#7911;i ro</h2>

Powell <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-rises-as-us-federal-reserve-opts-for-25bps-rate-cut/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&#273;&atilde; m&ocirc; t&#7843; vi&#7879;c c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t nh&#432; m&#7897;t quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh qu&#7843;n l&yacute; r&#7911;i ro</a> trong ph&#7847;n m&#7903; &#273;&#7847;u, nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh nh&#7919;ng v&#7871;t n&#7913;t ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng l&#7899;n trong th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng M&#7929;.
S&#7889; li&#7879;u b&#7843;ng l&#432;&#417;ng &#273;&#432;&#7907;c &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh cho th&#7845;y c&oacute; &iacute;t h&#417;n 911,000 vi&#7879;c l&agrave;m so v&#7899;i b&aacute;o c&aacute;o tr&#432;&#7899;c &#273;&oacute;, c&ugrave;ng v&#7899;i t&igrave;nh tr&#7841;ng th&#7845;t nghi&#7879;p d&agrave;i h&#7841;n gia t&#259;ng, cho th&#7845;y n&#7873;n t&#7843;ng y&#7871;u h&#417;n so v&#7899;i nh&#7919;ng con s&#7889; ti&ecirc;u &#273;&#7873; g&#7907;i &yacute;.
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&ldquo;R&#7911;i ro &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t &#273;ang nghi&ecirc;ng v&#7873; ph&iacute;a t&#259;ng, v&agrave; r&#7911;i ro &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i vi&#7879;c l&agrave;m &#273;ang nghi&ecirc;ng v&#7873; ph&iacute;a gi&#7843;m,&rdquo; Powell <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">n&oacute;i</a>.
</blockquote>

Ch&#7911; t&#7883;ch Fed c&#361;ng l&#432;u &yacute; r&#7857;ng c&aacute;c nh&agrave; ho&#7841;ch &#273;&#7883;nh ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch kh&ocirc;ng c&#7843;m th&#7845;y c&#7847;n ph&#7843;i di chuy&#7875;n nhanh ch&oacute;ng v&#7873; l&atilde;i su&#7845;t, nh&#432;ng ph&#7843;i h&agrave;nh &#273;&#7897;ng tr&#432;&#7899;c &#273;&#7875; ng&#259;n ch&#7863;n suy tho&aacute;i s&acirc;u h&#417;n.
Powell &#273;&atilde; gi&#7843;m nh&#7865; t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#7911;a <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/trump-tariffs-crypto-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">thu&#7871; quan c&#7911;a Trump</a>, cho r&#7857;ng s&#7921; truy&#7873;n t&#7843;i &#273;&atilde; &ldquo;ch&#7853;m h&#417;n v&agrave; nh&#7887; h&#417;n&rdquo; so v&#7899;i d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n.
Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, &ocirc;ng th&#7915;a nh&#7853;n &aacute;p l&#7921;c gi&aacute; c&oacute; th&#7875; k&eacute;o d&agrave;i &#273;&#7871;n n&#259;m 2026. &#272;&#7891;ng th&#7901;i, &ocirc;ng m&ocirc; t&#7843; th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng kh&ocirc;ng c&ograve;n &ldquo;v&#7919;ng ch&#7855;c.&rdquo;
&Ocirc;ng tr&iacute;ch d&#7851;n vi&#7879;c tuy&#7875;n d&#7909;ng ch&#7853;m l&#7841;i, s&#7921; thay &#273;&#7893;i nh&#7853;p c&#432; l&agrave;m gi&#7843;m ngu&#7891;n cung, v&agrave; vi&#7879;c &aacute;p d&#7909;ng AI c&oacute; th&#7875; &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng &#273;&#7871;n c&ocirc;ng vi&#7879;c c&#7845;p &#273;&#7847;u v&agrave;o.
K&#7871;t lu&#7853;n: Nh&#7919;ng ph&aacute;t bi&#7875;u c&#7911;a Powell c&ograve;n &ocirc;n h&ograve;a h&#417;n c&#7843; h&#432;&#7899;ng d&#7851;n n&#259;m 2024 c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng khi Fed &#273;&atilde; c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t 50 bp. &#272;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y cho th&#7845;y m&#7897;t s&#7921; chuy&#7875;n h&#432;&#7899;ng c&oacute; ch&#7911; &yacute; &#273;&#7875; &#432;u ti&ecirc;n vi&#7879;c l&agrave;m h&#417;n l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-market-reaction-with-fed-divisions-on-full-display-dollar-slides-equities-eye-liquidity">Ph&#7843;n &#7913;ng th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng v&#7899;i s&#7921; chia r&#7869; c&#7911;a Fed &#273;&#432;&#7907;c th&#7875; hi&#7879;n r&otilde;: &#272;&#7891;ng USD gi&#7843;m, c&#7893; phi&#7871;u ch&uacute; &yacute; &#273;&#7871;n thanh kho&#7843;n</h2>

Bi&#7875;u &#273;&#7891; dot-plot m&#7899;i ti&#7871;t l&#7897; m&#7897;t ng&acirc;n h&agrave;ng trung &#432;&#417;ng &#273;ang g&#7863;p kh&oacute; kh&#259;n trong vi&#7879;c t&igrave;m ki&#7871;m s&#7921; &#273;&#7891;ng thu&#7853;n. Ch&iacute;n trong s&#7889; 19 quan ch&#7913;c th&#7845;y c&oacute; th&ecirc;m hai l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m n&#7919;a trong n&#259;m nay, trong khi s&aacute;u ng&#432;&#7901;i d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n kh&ocirc;ng c&oacute; th&ecirc;m s&#7921; n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng n&agrave;o.
M&#7897;t th&agrave;nh vi&ecirc;n th&#7853;m ch&iacute; c&ograve;n d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n m&#7897;t l&#7847;n t&#259;ng, trong khi ng&#432;&#7901;i &#273;&#432;&#7907;c b&#7893; nhi&#7879;m b&#7903;i Trump, Stephen Miran, &#273;&atilde; b&#7845;t &#273;&#7891;ng &yacute; ki&#7871;n &#7911;ng h&#7897; vi&#7879;c c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m 50 bp.
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&ldquo;Cu&#7897;c h&#7885;p n&agrave;y l&agrave; m&#7897;t m&#7899; h&#7895;n &#273;&#7897;n&hellip; M&#7897;t th&agrave;nh vi&ecirc;n ngh&#297; r&#7857;ng Fed s&#7869; t&#259;ng l&atilde;i su&#7845;t trong n&#259;m nay&hellip; m&#7897;t ng&#432;&#7901;i kh&aacute;c ngh&#297; r&#7857;ng ch&uacute;ng ta s&#7869; c&oacute; n&#259;m l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m. Vi&#7879;c s&#7855;p x&#7871;p phi&#7871;u b&#7847;u &#273;&#7875; t&#7841;o ra &#7843;o t&#432;&#7903;ng v&#7873; m&#7897;t &lsquo;s&#7921; &#273;&#7891;ng thu&#7853;n&rsquo; v&agrave; sau &#273;&oacute; c&ocirc;ng b&#7889; m&#7897;t bi&#7875;u &#273;&#7891; dot-plot r&#7897;ng nh&#432; th&#7871; n&agrave;y ch&#7881; l&agrave;m suy y&#7871;u th&ecirc;m uy t&iacute;n c&#7911;a h&#7885;,&rdquo; <a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1968439250325836134" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">n&oacute;i</a> nh&agrave; nghi&ecirc;n c&#7913;u &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; v&#297; m&ocirc; Jim Bianco.
</blockquote>

<img style="height:400px;width:640px;" decoding="async" alt="Fed Dot Plot" class="wp-image-743302 lazy" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/i2C2su7m9ZjCEy18VyRceL340k0=/smart/5206673b696d4efd8a49d4c9f5f7c031">Bi&#7875;u &#273;&#7891; Dot c&#7911;a Fed. Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1968439250325836134/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">Jim Bianco tr&ecirc;n X</a>

Trong khi &#273;&oacute;, The Kobeissi Letter g&#7885;i &#273;&#7897;ng th&aacute;i n&agrave;y l&agrave; l&#7883;ch s&#7917;, nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t &#273;&#7847;u ti&ecirc;n trong h&#417;n 30 n&#259;m v&#7899;i l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t Core PCE tr&ecirc;n 2.9%.
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&ldquo;R&otilde; r&agrave;ng Fed &#273;ang &#432;u ti&ecirc;n th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng h&#417;n l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t,&rdquo; Kobeissi <a href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1968402186569646324" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">vi&#7871;t</a>, l&#432;u &yacute; r&#7857;ng th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng hi&#7879;n k&#7923; v&#7885;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; c&oacute; t&#7899;i b&#7889;n l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m n&#7919;a v&agrave;o th&aacute;ng 09/2026.
</blockquote>

Ph&#7843;n &#7913;ng ngay l&#7853;p t&#7913;c c&#7911;a th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng r&#7845;t nhanh ch&oacute;ng. &#272;&#7891;ng USD gi&#7843;m xu&#7889;ng m&#7913;c th&#7845;p nh&#7845;t k&#7875; t&#7915; th&aacute;ng 02/2022, trong khi c&#7893; phi&#7871;u gi&#7919; g&#7847;n m&#7913;c cao k&#7927; l&#7909;c.
<a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/perpetual-futures-contracts" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng t&#432;&#417;ng lai</a> &#273;&atilde; &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute; &iacute;t nh&#7845;t hai l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m b&#7893; sung v&agrave;o cu&#7889;i n&#259;m, v&#7899;i d&#7919; li&#7879;u Kalshi cho th&#7845;y kh&#7843; n&#259;ng c&oacute; ba l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m t&#259;ng v&#7885;t tr&ecirc;n 60%.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-what-did-the-markets-interpret-from-powell-s-speech-yesterday">Th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng &#273;&atilde; hi&#7875;u g&igrave; t&#7915; b&agrave;i ph&aacute;t bi&#7875;u c&#7911;a Powell ng&agrave;y h&ocirc;m qua?</h2>

Barchart nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh r&#7857;ng khi Fed c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t trong v&ograve;ng 2% so v&#7899;i m&#7913;c cao k&#7927; l&#7909;c c&#7911;a th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng ch&#7913;ng kho&aacute;n, S&amp;P 500 &#273;&atilde; t&#259;ng 100% trong 12 th&aacute;ng ti&#7871;p theo, trung b&igrave;nh t&#259;ng 14%.
Jurrien Timmer c&#7911;a Fidelity so s&aacute;nh th&#7901;i &#273;i&#7875;m n&agrave;y v&#7899;i cu&#7897;c kh&#7911;ng ho&#7843;ng LTCM cu&#7889;i n&#259;m 1998, khi Fed c&#7911;a Greenspan n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng v&agrave;o th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng m&#7841;nh, th&uacute;c &#273;&#7849;y m&#7897;t s&#7921; ph&#7909;c h&#7891;i ngo&#7841;n m&#7909;c.
Th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng ti&#7873;n &#273;i&#7879;n t&#7917; c&#361;ng &#273;ang theo d&otilde;i ch&#7863;t ch&#7869; d&ograve;ng ch&#7843;y thanh kho&#7843;n, v&#7899;i nh&agrave; ph&acirc;n t&iacute;ch Ash Crypto nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh tri&#7875;n v&#7885;ng c&oacute; th&ecirc;m thanh kho&#7843;n khi c&oacute; th&ecirc;m c&aacute;c &#273;&#7907;t c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t. &Ocirc;ng cho r&#7857;ng &#273;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y s&#7869; chuy&#7875;n th&agrave;nh ti&#7873;m n&#259;ng t&#259;ng gi&aacute; cho ti&#7873;n &#273;i&#7879;n t&#7917;.
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&ldquo;C&#7855;t gi&#7843;m nhi&#7873;u h&#417;n = Nhi&#7873;u thanh kho&#7843;n h&#417;n = t&#259;ng gi&aacute;,&rdquo; nh&agrave; ph&acirc;n t&iacute;ch <a href="https://x.com/Ashcryptoreal/status/1968375644712222987" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">vi&#7871;t</a>.
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<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-the-case-for-caution">L&yacute; do c&#7847;n th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng</h2>

Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, kh&ocirc;ng ph&#7843;i ai c&#361;ng tin r&#7857;ng vi&#7879;c c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m n&agrave;y b&aacute;o hi&#7879;u m&#7897;t chu k&#7923; t&#259;ng gi&aacute; k&eacute;o d&agrave;i. Mark Minervini cho r&#7857;ng &#273;&#7897;ng th&aacute;i c&#7911;a Fed ch&#7881; l&agrave; m&#7897;t &#273;&#7907;t c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m &ldquo;token&rdquo;. <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-us-cpi-fed-rate-decision-september/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">V&#7899;i s&#7921; dai d&#7859;ng c&#7911;a l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t</a>, &ocirc;ng cho r&#7857;ng kh&oacute; c&oacute; kh&#7843; n&#259;ng d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n m&#7897;t con &#273;&#432;&#7901;ng n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng m&#7841;nh m&#7869;.
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&ldquo;Vi&#7879;c c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t th&#432;&#7901;ng l&agrave; t&iacute;n hi&#7879;u t&iacute;ch c&#7921;c, &#273;&#7863;c bi&#7879;t khi n&oacute; di&#7877;n ra ngo&agrave;i th&#7901;i k&#7923; suy tho&aacute;i. Nh&#432;ng Fed &#273;ang c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m m&#7897;t c&aacute;ch ch&#7911; &#273;&#7897;ng thay v&igrave; ph&#7843;n &#7913;ng v&#7899;i m&#7897;t cu&#7897;c suy tho&aacute;i r&otilde; r&agrave;ng. S&#7921; kh&aacute;c bi&#7879;t n&agrave;y quan tr&#7885;ng: n&oacute; l&agrave;m gi&#7843;m kh&#7843; n&#259;ng c&#7911;a m&#7897;t con &#273;&#432;&#7901;ng n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng m&#7841;nh m&#7869;, &#273;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y c&oacute; th&#7875; l&agrave;m gi&#7843;m t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng &#273;&#7871;n th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng,&rdquo; &ocirc;ng <a href="https://x.com/markminervini/status/1968282665565438451" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">nh&#7853;n x&eacute;t</a>.
</blockquote>

Trong khi &#273;&oacute;, c&aacute;c nh&agrave; kinh t&#7871; t&#7841;i The Conversation nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh s&#7921; c&acirc;n b&#7857;ng: c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m qu&aacute; nhanh c&oacute; th&#7875; l&agrave;m b&ugrave;ng ph&aacute;t l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t, trong khi di chuy&#7875;n qu&aacute; ch&#7853;m c&oacute; nguy c&#417; l&agrave;m suy gi&#7843;m th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng m&#7841;nh h&#417;n.
<a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/trump-tariff-appeal-crypto-market-impact/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&Aacute;p l&#7921;c gi&aacute; do thu&#7871; quan</a> l&agrave;m ph&#7913;c t&#7841;p b&#7913;c tranh, &#273;&#7863;c bi&#7879;t &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i c&aacute;c h&#7897; gia &#273;&igrave;nh c&oacute; thu nh&#7853;p th&#7845;p, nh&#7919;ng ng&#432;&#7901;i chi ti&ecirc;u nhi&#7873;u h&#417;n cho c&aacute;c m&#7863;t h&agrave;ng nh&#7853;p kh&#7849;u thi&#7871;t y&#7871;u hi&#7879;n &#273;ang t&#259;ng gi&aacute;.
Henrik Zeberg, m&#7897;t nh&agrave; ph&acirc;n t&iacute;ch chu k&#7923; l&acirc;u n&#259;m, c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o r&#7857;ng th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; b&#432;&#7899;c v&agrave;o giai &#273;o&#7841;n b&ugrave;ng n&#7893; h&#432;ng ph&#7845;n tr&#432;&#7899;c khi suy tho&aacute;i nghi&ecirc;m tr&#7885;ng.
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&ldquo;Thanh kho&#7843;n hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i ch&#7881; x&acirc;y d&#7921;ng m&#7897;t &#273;&#7881;nh cao h&#417;n t&#7915; &#273;&oacute; th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893;,&rdquo; &ocirc;ng <a href="https://x.com/HenrikZeberg/status/1952650046584803461" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">vi&#7871;t</a>, so s&aacute;nh &#273;&#7907;t t&#259;ng gi&aacute; hi&#7879;n nay v&#7899;i h&agrave;nh vi cu&#7889;i th&#7853;p ni&ecirc;n 1920.
</blockquote>

<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-what-comes-next">&#272;i&#7873;u g&igrave; s&#7869; x&#7843;y ra ti&#7871;p theo</h2>

S&#7921; kh&aacute;c bi&#7879;t gi&#7919;a c&aacute;c y&#7871;u t&#7889; k&#7929; thu&#7853;t th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng m&#7841;nh m&#7869; v&agrave; c&aacute;c y&#7871;u t&#7889; c&#417; b&#7843;n &#273;ang suy y&#7871;u khi&#7871;n c&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; &#7903; v&#7883; tr&iacute; b&#7845;p b&ecirc;nh.
C&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; tin r&#7857;ng Powell &#273;&atilde; ph&aacute;t t&iacute;n hi&#7879;u r&#7857;ng s&#7869; c&oacute; th&ecirc;m c&aacute;c &#273;&#7907;t c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m. Trong b&#7889;i c&#7843;nh n&agrave;y, t&acirc;m l&yacute; l&#7841;c quan, &iacute;t nh&#7845;t l&agrave; hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i, v&#7899;i c&#7893; phi&#7871;u &#273;&#7841;t m&#7913;c k&#7927; l&#7909;c v&agrave; ti&#7873;n &#273;i&#7879;n t&#7917; &#273;ang t&#259;ng.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;" decoding="async" alt="Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance" class="wp-image-743307 lazy" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/G9hIHPrhperdNvK3zMlzP7Oy6u4=/smart/ec72ef3b679e4469a9ebdb65d4510fdf">Hi&#7879;u su&#7845;t gi&aacute; Bitcoin (BTC). Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://beincrypto.com/price/bitcoin/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BeInCrypto</a>

T&#7841;i th&#7901;i &#273;i&#7875;m vi&#7871;t b&agrave;i, Bitcoin &#273;ang giao d&#7883;ch &#7903; m&#7913;c 117,107 USD, trong khi Ethereum &#273;&#432;&#7907;c trao &#273;&#7893;i &#7903; m&#7913;c 4,572 USD. C&#7843; hai t&agrave;i s&#7843;n &#273;&#7873;u cho th&#7845;y s&#7913;c m&#7841;nh sau quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh c&#7911;a Fed.
Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, r&#7911;i ro v&#7851;n t&#7891;n t&#7841;i v&agrave; ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c l&agrave;m x&oacute;i m&ograve;n ni&#7873;m tin c&#7911;a nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432;. Nh&#7919;ng r&#7911;i ro n&agrave;y bao g&#7891;m:
<ul class="bic-gutenberg-list wp-list list-disc ">
<li>Th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng suy y&#7871;u d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n suy tho&aacute;i,</li>

<li>L&#7841;m ph&aacute;t do thu&#7871; quan g&acirc;y ra dai d&#7859;ng, v&agrave;</li>

<li>Nh&#7919;ng s&#7855;c th&aacute;i ch&iacute;nh tr&#7883; xung quanh c&aacute;ch ti&#7871;p c&#7853;n &ldquo;qu&#7843;n l&yacute; r&#7911;i ro&rdquo; c&#7911;a Powell.</li>
</ul>

N&#7871;u Fed c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m qu&aacute; m&#7841;nh, h&#7885; c&oacute; nguy c&#417; m&#7845;t uy t&iacute;n trong vi&#7879;c ch&#7889;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t. &#272;&#7891;ng th&#7901;i, t&#7927; l&#7879; th&#7845;t nghi&#7879;p gia t&#259;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; bu&#7897;c ph&#7843;i h&agrave;nh &#273;&#7897;ng quy&#7871;t li&#7879;t h&#417;n sau n&agrave;y n&#7871;u h&#7885; di chuy&#7875;n qu&aacute; th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng.
Do &#273;&oacute;, v&agrave;i tu&#7847;n t&#7899;i &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i c&aacute;c t&agrave;i s&#7843;n r&#7911;i ro h&#417;n nh&#432; Bitcoin c&oacute; th&#7875; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c x&aacute;c &#273;&#7883;nh b&#7903;i s&#7921; l&#7841;c quan do thanh kho&#7843;n th&uacute;c &#273;&#7849;y. Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, &#273;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y &#273;&#432;&#7907;c hi&#7875;u r&#7857;ng &#273;&#7907;t t&#259;ng gi&aacute; n&agrave;y d&#7921;a tr&ecirc;n n&#7873;n t&#7843;ng mong manh.
&#272;&aacute;ng ch&uacute; &yacute; l&agrave; ch&iacute;nh Powell &#273;&atilde; th&#7915;a nh&#7853;n r&#7857;ng Fed &#273;ang &#273;i&#7873;u h&#432;&#7899;ng &ldquo;m&#7897;t t&igrave;nh hu&#7889;ng th&aacute;ch th&#7913;c&rdquo; khi c&#7843; hai m&#7863;t c&#7911;a nhi&#7879;m v&#7909; c&#7911;a h&#7885; &#273;&#7873;u &#273;ang b&aacute;o &#273;&#7897;ng &#273;&#7887;. L&#7883;ch s&#7917; c&#7911;a nh&#7919;ng th&#7901;i &#273;i&#7875;m nh&#432; v&#7853;y cho th&#7845;y th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng th&#432;&#7901;ng t&#259;ng tr&#432;&#7899;c v&agrave; &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh sau.

Sau khi Fed giảm 25bps: Thị trường cân nhắc rủi ro lao động, lạm phát và cược thanh khoản

Vi&#7879;c C&#7909;c D&#7921; tr&#7919; Li&ecirc;n bang M&#7929; (Fed) c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t 25 &#273;i&#7875;m c&#417; b&#7843;n (bp), l&#7847;n &#273;&#7847;u ti&ecirc;n trong n&#259;m 2025, &#273;&atilde; t&#7841;o ra nhi&#7873;u cu&#7897;c tranh lu&#7853;n tr&ecirc;n th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng trong nhi&#7873;u tu&#7847;n.
M&#7863;c d&ugrave; &#273;&#7897;ng th&aacute;i n&agrave;y &#273;&atilde; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n r&#7897;ng r&atilde;i, nh&#432;ng gi&#7885;ng &#273;i&#7879;u &ocirc;n h&ograve;a c&#7911;a Ch&#7911; t&#7883;ch Jerome Powell t&#7841;i cu&#7897;c h&#7885;p b&aacute;o h&ocirc;m qua v&agrave; bi&#7875;u &#273;&#7891; dot-plot chia r&#7869; m&#7841;nh m&#7869; c&#7911;a Fed &#273;&atilde; khi&#7871;n c&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; t&#7921; h&#7887;i &#273;i&#7873;u g&igrave; s&#7869; x&#7843;y ra ti&#7871;p theo.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-powell-signals-a-risk-management-pivot">Powell b&aacute;o hi&#7879;u s&#7921; chuy&#7875;n h&#432;&#7899;ng qu&#7843;n l&yacute; r&#7911;i ro</h2>

Powell <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-rises-as-us-federal-reserve-opts-for-25bps-rate-cut/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&#273;&atilde; m&ocirc; t&#7843; vi&#7879;c c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t nh&#432; m&#7897;t quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh qu&#7843;n l&yacute; r&#7911;i ro</a> trong ph&#7847;n m&#7903; &#273;&#7847;u, nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh nh&#7919;ng v&#7871;t n&#7913;t ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng l&#7899;n trong th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng M&#7929;.
S&#7889; li&#7879;u b&#7843;ng l&#432;&#417;ng &#273;&#432;&#7907;c &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh cho th&#7845;y c&oacute; &iacute;t h&#417;n 911,000 vi&#7879;c l&agrave;m so v&#7899;i b&aacute;o c&aacute;o tr&#432;&#7899;c &#273;&oacute;, c&ugrave;ng v&#7899;i t&igrave;nh tr&#7841;ng th&#7845;t nghi&#7879;p d&agrave;i h&#7841;n gia t&#259;ng, cho th&#7845;y n&#7873;n t&#7843;ng y&#7871;u h&#417;n so v&#7899;i nh&#7919;ng con s&#7889; ti&ecirc;u &#273;&#7873; g&#7907;i &yacute;.
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&ldquo;R&#7911;i ro &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t &#273;ang nghi&ecirc;ng v&#7873; ph&iacute;a t&#259;ng, v&agrave; r&#7911;i ro &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i vi&#7879;c l&agrave;m &#273;ang nghi&ecirc;ng v&#7873; ph&iacute;a gi&#7843;m,&rdquo; Powell <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">n&oacute;i</a>.
</blockquote>

Ch&#7911; t&#7883;ch Fed c&#361;ng l&#432;u &yacute; r&#7857;ng c&aacute;c nh&agrave; ho&#7841;ch &#273;&#7883;nh ch&iacute;nh s&aacute;ch kh&ocirc;ng c&#7843;m th&#7845;y c&#7847;n ph&#7843;i di chuy&#7875;n nhanh ch&oacute;ng v&#7873; l&atilde;i su&#7845;t, nh&#432;ng ph&#7843;i h&agrave;nh &#273;&#7897;ng tr&#432;&#7899;c &#273;&#7875; ng&#259;n ch&#7863;n suy tho&aacute;i s&acirc;u h&#417;n.
Powell &#273;&atilde; gi&#7843;m nh&#7865; t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t c&#7911;a <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/trump-tariffs-crypto-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">thu&#7871; quan c&#7911;a Trump</a>, cho r&#7857;ng s&#7921; truy&#7873;n t&#7843;i &#273;&atilde; &ldquo;ch&#7853;m h&#417;n v&agrave; nh&#7887; h&#417;n&rdquo; so v&#7899;i d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n.
Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, &ocirc;ng th&#7915;a nh&#7853;n &aacute;p l&#7921;c gi&aacute; c&oacute; th&#7875; k&eacute;o d&agrave;i &#273;&#7871;n n&#259;m 2026. &#272;&#7891;ng th&#7901;i, &ocirc;ng m&ocirc; t&#7843; th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng kh&ocirc;ng c&ograve;n &ldquo;v&#7919;ng ch&#7855;c.&rdquo;
&Ocirc;ng tr&iacute;ch d&#7851;n vi&#7879;c tuy&#7875;n d&#7909;ng ch&#7853;m l&#7841;i, s&#7921; thay &#273;&#7893;i nh&#7853;p c&#432; l&agrave;m gi&#7843;m ngu&#7891;n cung, v&agrave; vi&#7879;c &aacute;p d&#7909;ng AI c&oacute; th&#7875; &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng &#273;&#7871;n c&ocirc;ng vi&#7879;c c&#7845;p &#273;&#7847;u v&agrave;o.
K&#7871;t lu&#7853;n: Nh&#7919;ng ph&aacute;t bi&#7875;u c&#7911;a Powell c&ograve;n &ocirc;n h&ograve;a h&#417;n c&#7843; h&#432;&#7899;ng d&#7851;n n&#259;m 2024 c&#7911;a &ocirc;ng khi Fed &#273;&atilde; c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t 50 bp. &#272;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y cho th&#7845;y m&#7897;t s&#7921; chuy&#7875;n h&#432;&#7899;ng c&oacute; ch&#7911; &yacute; &#273;&#7875; &#432;u ti&ecirc;n vi&#7879;c l&agrave;m h&#417;n l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-market-reaction-with-fed-divisions-on-full-display-dollar-slides-equities-eye-liquidity">Ph&#7843;n &#7913;ng th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng v&#7899;i s&#7921; chia r&#7869; c&#7911;a Fed &#273;&#432;&#7907;c th&#7875; hi&#7879;n r&otilde;: &#272;&#7891;ng USD gi&#7843;m, c&#7893; phi&#7871;u ch&uacute; &yacute; &#273;&#7871;n thanh kho&#7843;n</h2>

Bi&#7875;u &#273;&#7891; dot-plot m&#7899;i ti&#7871;t l&#7897; m&#7897;t ng&acirc;n h&agrave;ng trung &#432;&#417;ng &#273;ang g&#7863;p kh&oacute; kh&#259;n trong vi&#7879;c t&igrave;m ki&#7871;m s&#7921; &#273;&#7891;ng thu&#7853;n. Ch&iacute;n trong s&#7889; 19 quan ch&#7913;c th&#7845;y c&oacute; th&ecirc;m hai l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m n&#7919;a trong n&#259;m nay, trong khi s&aacute;u ng&#432;&#7901;i d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n kh&ocirc;ng c&oacute; th&ecirc;m s&#7921; n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng n&agrave;o.
M&#7897;t th&agrave;nh vi&ecirc;n th&#7853;m ch&iacute; c&ograve;n d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n m&#7897;t l&#7847;n t&#259;ng, trong khi ng&#432;&#7901;i &#273;&#432;&#7907;c b&#7893; nhi&#7879;m b&#7903;i Trump, Stephen Miran, &#273;&atilde; b&#7845;t &#273;&#7891;ng &yacute; ki&#7871;n &#7911;ng h&#7897; vi&#7879;c c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m 50 bp.
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&ldquo;Cu&#7897;c h&#7885;p n&agrave;y l&agrave; m&#7897;t m&#7899; h&#7895;n &#273;&#7897;n&hellip; M&#7897;t th&agrave;nh vi&ecirc;n ngh&#297; r&#7857;ng Fed s&#7869; t&#259;ng l&atilde;i su&#7845;t trong n&#259;m nay&hellip; m&#7897;t ng&#432;&#7901;i kh&aacute;c ngh&#297; r&#7857;ng ch&uacute;ng ta s&#7869; c&oacute; n&#259;m l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m. Vi&#7879;c s&#7855;p x&#7871;p phi&#7871;u b&#7847;u &#273;&#7875; t&#7841;o ra &#7843;o t&#432;&#7903;ng v&#7873; m&#7897;t &lsquo;s&#7921; &#273;&#7891;ng thu&#7853;n&rsquo; v&agrave; sau &#273;&oacute; c&ocirc;ng b&#7889; m&#7897;t bi&#7875;u &#273;&#7891; dot-plot r&#7897;ng nh&#432; th&#7871; n&agrave;y ch&#7881; l&agrave;m suy y&#7871;u th&ecirc;m uy t&iacute;n c&#7911;a h&#7885;,&rdquo; <a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1968439250325836134" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">n&oacute;i</a> nh&agrave; nghi&ecirc;n c&#7913;u &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; v&#297; m&ocirc; Jim Bianco.
</blockquote>

<img style="height:400px;width:640px;"decoding="async" alt="Fed Dot Plot" class="wp-image-743302 lazy" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/i2C2su7m9ZjCEy18VyRceL340k0=/smart/5206673b696d4efd8a49d4c9f5f7c031">Bi&#7875;u &#273;&#7891; Dot c&#7911;a Fed. Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1968439250325836134/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">Jim Bianco tr&ecirc;n X</a>

Trong khi &#273;&oacute;, The Kobeissi Letter g&#7885;i &#273;&#7897;ng th&aacute;i n&agrave;y l&agrave; l&#7883;ch s&#7917;, nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t &#273;&#7847;u ti&ecirc;n trong h&#417;n 30 n&#259;m v&#7899;i l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t Core PCE tr&ecirc;n 2.9%.
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&ldquo;R&otilde; r&agrave;ng Fed &#273;ang &#432;u ti&ecirc;n th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng h&#417;n l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t,&rdquo; Kobeissi <a href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1968402186569646324" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">vi&#7871;t</a>, l&#432;u &yacute; r&#7857;ng th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng hi&#7879;n k&#7923; v&#7885;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; c&oacute; t&#7899;i b&#7889;n l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m n&#7919;a v&agrave;o th&aacute;ng 09/2026.
</blockquote>

Ph&#7843;n &#7913;ng ngay l&#7853;p t&#7913;c c&#7911;a th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng r&#7845;t nhanh ch&oacute;ng. &#272;&#7891;ng USD gi&#7843;m xu&#7889;ng m&#7913;c th&#7845;p nh&#7845;t k&#7875; t&#7915; th&aacute;ng 02/2022, trong khi c&#7893; phi&#7871;u gi&#7919; g&#7847;n m&#7913;c cao k&#7927; l&#7909;c.
<a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/perpetual-futures-contracts" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng t&#432;&#417;ng lai</a> &#273;&atilde; &#273;&#7883;nh gi&aacute; &iacute;t nh&#7845;t hai l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m b&#7893; sung v&agrave;o cu&#7889;i n&#259;m, v&#7899;i d&#7919; li&#7879;u Kalshi cho th&#7845;y kh&#7843; n&#259;ng c&oacute; ba l&#7847;n c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m t&#259;ng v&#7885;t tr&ecirc;n 60%.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-what-did-the-markets-interpret-from-powell-s-speech-yesterday">Th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng &#273;&atilde; hi&#7875;u g&igrave; t&#7915; b&agrave;i ph&aacute;t bi&#7875;u c&#7911;a Powell ng&agrave;y h&ocirc;m qua?</h2>

Barchart nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh r&#7857;ng khi Fed c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t trong v&ograve;ng 2% so v&#7899;i m&#7913;c cao k&#7927; l&#7909;c c&#7911;a th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng ch&#7913;ng kho&aacute;n, S&amp;P 500 &#273;&atilde; t&#259;ng 100% trong 12 th&aacute;ng ti&#7871;p theo, trung b&igrave;nh t&#259;ng 14%.
Jurrien Timmer c&#7911;a Fidelity so s&aacute;nh th&#7901;i &#273;i&#7875;m n&agrave;y v&#7899;i cu&#7897;c kh&#7911;ng ho&#7843;ng LTCM cu&#7889;i n&#259;m 1998, khi Fed c&#7911;a Greenspan n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng v&agrave;o th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng m&#7841;nh, th&uacute;c &#273;&#7849;y m&#7897;t s&#7921; ph&#7909;c h&#7891;i ngo&#7841;n m&#7909;c.
Th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng ti&#7873;n &#273;i&#7879;n t&#7917; c&#361;ng &#273;ang theo d&otilde;i ch&#7863;t ch&#7869; d&ograve;ng ch&#7843;y thanh kho&#7843;n, v&#7899;i nh&agrave; ph&acirc;n t&iacute;ch Ash Crypto nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh tri&#7875;n v&#7885;ng c&oacute; th&ecirc;m thanh kho&#7843;n khi c&oacute; th&ecirc;m c&aacute;c &#273;&#7907;t c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t. &Ocirc;ng cho r&#7857;ng &#273;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y s&#7869; chuy&#7875;n th&agrave;nh ti&#7873;m n&#259;ng t&#259;ng gi&aacute; cho ti&#7873;n &#273;i&#7879;n t&#7917;.
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&ldquo;C&#7855;t gi&#7843;m nhi&#7873;u h&#417;n = Nhi&#7873;u thanh kho&#7843;n h&#417;n = t&#259;ng gi&aacute;,&rdquo; nh&agrave; ph&acirc;n t&iacute;ch <a href="https://x.com/Ashcryptoreal/status/1968375644712222987" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">vi&#7871;t</a>.
</blockquote>

<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-the-case-for-caution">L&yacute; do c&#7847;n th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng</h2>

Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, kh&ocirc;ng ph&#7843;i ai c&#361;ng tin r&#7857;ng vi&#7879;c c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m n&agrave;y b&aacute;o hi&#7879;u m&#7897;t chu k&#7923; t&#259;ng gi&aacute; k&eacute;o d&agrave;i. Mark Minervini cho r&#7857;ng &#273;&#7897;ng th&aacute;i c&#7911;a Fed ch&#7881; l&agrave; m&#7897;t &#273;&#7907;t c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m &ldquo;token&rdquo;. <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-us-cpi-fed-rate-decision-september/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">V&#7899;i s&#7921; dai d&#7859;ng c&#7911;a l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t</a>, &ocirc;ng cho r&#7857;ng kh&oacute; c&oacute; kh&#7843; n&#259;ng d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n m&#7897;t con &#273;&#432;&#7901;ng n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng m&#7841;nh m&#7869;.
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&ldquo;Vi&#7879;c c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m l&atilde;i su&#7845;t th&#432;&#7901;ng l&agrave; t&iacute;n hi&#7879;u t&iacute;ch c&#7921;c, &#273;&#7863;c bi&#7879;t khi n&oacute; di&#7877;n ra ngo&agrave;i th&#7901;i k&#7923; suy tho&aacute;i. Nh&#432;ng Fed &#273;ang c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m m&#7897;t c&aacute;ch ch&#7911; &#273;&#7897;ng thay v&igrave; ph&#7843;n &#7913;ng v&#7899;i m&#7897;t cu&#7897;c suy tho&aacute;i r&otilde; r&agrave;ng. S&#7921; kh&aacute;c bi&#7879;t n&agrave;y quan tr&#7885;ng: n&oacute; l&agrave;m gi&#7843;m kh&#7843; n&#259;ng c&#7911;a m&#7897;t con &#273;&#432;&#7901;ng n&#7899;i l&#7887;ng m&#7841;nh m&#7869;, &#273;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y c&oacute; th&#7875; l&agrave;m gi&#7843;m t&aacute;c &#273;&#7897;ng &#273;&#7871;n th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng,&rdquo; &ocirc;ng <a href="https://x.com/markminervini/status/1968282665565438451" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">nh&#7853;n x&eacute;t</a>.
</blockquote>

Trong khi &#273;&oacute;, c&aacute;c nh&agrave; kinh t&#7871; t&#7841;i The Conversation nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh s&#7921; c&acirc;n b&#7857;ng: c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m qu&aacute; nhanh c&oacute; th&#7875; l&agrave;m b&ugrave;ng ph&aacute;t l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t, trong khi di chuy&#7875;n qu&aacute; ch&#7853;m c&oacute; nguy c&#417; l&agrave;m suy gi&#7843;m th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng m&#7841;nh h&#417;n.
<a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/trump-tariff-appeal-crypto-market-impact/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&Aacute;p l&#7921;c gi&aacute; do thu&#7871; quan</a> l&agrave;m ph&#7913;c t&#7841;p b&#7913;c tranh, &#273;&#7863;c bi&#7879;t &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i c&aacute;c h&#7897; gia &#273;&igrave;nh c&oacute; thu nh&#7853;p th&#7845;p, nh&#7919;ng ng&#432;&#7901;i chi ti&ecirc;u nhi&#7873;u h&#417;n cho c&aacute;c m&#7863;t h&agrave;ng nh&#7853;p kh&#7849;u thi&#7871;t y&#7871;u hi&#7879;n &#273;ang t&#259;ng gi&aacute;.
Henrik Zeberg, m&#7897;t nh&agrave; ph&acirc;n t&iacute;ch chu k&#7923; l&acirc;u n&#259;m, c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o r&#7857;ng th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; b&#432;&#7899;c v&agrave;o giai &#273;o&#7841;n b&ugrave;ng n&#7893; h&#432;ng ph&#7845;n tr&#432;&#7899;c khi suy tho&aacute;i nghi&ecirc;m tr&#7885;ng.
<blockquote class="max-w-xl text-4.5 border-l-2 border-blue-600 pl-11 mb-9 select-all [&amp;_p]:!mb-0 wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
&ldquo;Thanh kho&#7843;n hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i ch&#7881; x&acirc;y d&#7921;ng m&#7897;t &#273;&#7881;nh cao h&#417;n t&#7915; &#273;&oacute; th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893;,&rdquo; &ocirc;ng <a href="https://x.com/HenrikZeberg/status/1952650046584803461" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">vi&#7871;t</a>, so s&aacute;nh &#273;&#7907;t t&#259;ng gi&aacute; hi&#7879;n nay v&#7899;i h&agrave;nh vi cu&#7889;i th&#7853;p ni&ecirc;n 1920.
</blockquote>

<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-what-comes-next">&#272;i&#7873;u g&igrave; s&#7869; x&#7843;y ra ti&#7871;p theo</h2>

S&#7921; kh&aacute;c bi&#7879;t gi&#7919;a c&aacute;c y&#7871;u t&#7889; k&#7929; thu&#7853;t th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng m&#7841;nh m&#7869; v&agrave; c&aacute;c y&#7871;u t&#7889; c&#417; b&#7843;n &#273;ang suy y&#7871;u khi&#7871;n c&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; &#7903; v&#7883; tr&iacute; b&#7845;p b&ecirc;nh.
C&aacute;c nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; tin r&#7857;ng Powell &#273;&atilde; ph&aacute;t t&iacute;n hi&#7879;u r&#7857;ng s&#7869; c&oacute; th&ecirc;m c&aacute;c &#273;&#7907;t c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m. Trong b&#7889;i c&#7843;nh n&agrave;y, t&acirc;m l&yacute; l&#7841;c quan, &iacute;t nh&#7845;t l&agrave; hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i, v&#7899;i c&#7893; phi&#7871;u &#273;&#7841;t m&#7913;c k&#7927; l&#7909;c v&agrave; ti&#7873;n &#273;i&#7879;n t&#7917; &#273;ang t&#259;ng.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;"decoding="async" alt="Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance" class="wp-image-743307 lazy" loading="lazy" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/G9hIHPrhperdNvK3zMlzP7Oy6u4=/smart/ec72ef3b679e4469a9ebdb65d4510fdf">Hi&#7879;u su&#7845;t gi&aacute; Bitcoin (BTC). Ngu&#7891;n: <a href="https://beincrypto.com/price/bitcoin/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BeInCrypto</a>

T&#7841;i th&#7901;i &#273;i&#7875;m vi&#7871;t b&agrave;i, Bitcoin &#273;ang giao d&#7883;ch &#7903; m&#7913;c 117,107 USD, trong khi Ethereum &#273;&#432;&#7907;c trao &#273;&#7893;i &#7903; m&#7913;c 4,572 USD. C&#7843; hai t&agrave;i s&#7843;n &#273;&#7873;u cho th&#7845;y s&#7913;c m&#7841;nh sau quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh c&#7911;a Fed.
Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, r&#7911;i ro v&#7851;n t&#7891;n t&#7841;i v&agrave; ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c l&agrave;m x&oacute;i m&ograve;n ni&#7873;m tin c&#7911;a nh&agrave; &#273;&#7847;u t&#432;. Nh&#7919;ng r&#7911;i ro n&agrave;y bao g&#7891;m:
<ul class="bic-gutenberg-list wp-list list-disc ">
<li>Th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng lao &#273;&#7897;ng suy y&#7871;u d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n suy tho&aacute;i,</li>

<li>L&#7841;m ph&aacute;t do thu&#7871; quan g&acirc;y ra dai d&#7859;ng, v&agrave;</li>

<li>Nh&#7919;ng s&#7855;c th&aacute;i ch&iacute;nh tr&#7883; xung quanh c&aacute;ch ti&#7871;p c&#7853;n &ldquo;qu&#7843;n l&yacute; r&#7911;i ro&rdquo; c&#7911;a Powell.</li>
</ul>

N&#7871;u Fed c&#7855;t gi&#7843;m qu&aacute; m&#7841;nh, h&#7885; c&oacute; nguy c&#417; m&#7845;t uy t&iacute;n trong vi&#7879;c ch&#7889;ng l&#7841;m ph&aacute;t. &#272;&#7891;ng th&#7901;i, t&#7927; l&#7879; th&#7845;t nghi&#7879;p gia t&#259;ng c&oacute; th&#7875; bu&#7897;c ph&#7843;i h&agrave;nh &#273;&#7897;ng quy&#7871;t li&#7879;t h&#417;n sau n&agrave;y n&#7871;u h&#7885; di chuy&#7875;n qu&aacute; th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng.
Do &#273;&oacute;, v&agrave;i tu&#7847;n t&#7899;i &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i c&aacute;c t&agrave;i s&#7843;n r&#7911;i ro h&#417;n nh&#432; Bitcoin c&oacute; th&#7875; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c x&aacute;c &#273;&#7883;nh b&#7903;i s&#7921; l&#7841;c quan do thanh kho&#7843;n th&uacute;c &#273;&#7849;y. Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, &#273;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y &#273;&#432;&#7907;c hi&#7875;u r&#7857;ng &#273;&#7907;t t&#259;ng gi&aacute; n&agrave;y d&#7921;a tr&ecirc;n n&#7873;n t&#7843;ng mong manh.
&#272;&aacute;ng ch&uacute; &yacute; l&agrave; ch&iacute;nh Powell &#273;&atilde; th&#7915;a nh&#7853;n r&#7857;ng Fed &#273;ang &#273;i&#7873;u h&#432;&#7899;ng &ldquo;m&#7897;t t&igrave;nh hu&#7889;ng th&aacute;ch th&#7913;c&rdquo; khi c&#7843; hai m&#7863;t c&#7911;a nhi&#7879;m v&#7909; c&#7911;a h&#7885; &#273;&#7873;u &#273;ang b&aacute;o &#273;&#7897;ng &#273;&#7887;. L&#7883;ch s&#7917; c&#7911;a nh&#7919;ng th&#7901;i &#273;i&#7875;m nh&#432; v&#7853;y cho th&#7845;y th&#7883; tr&#432;&#7901;ng th&#432;&#7901;ng t&#259;ng tr&#432;&#7899;c v&agrave; &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh sau.