Nh&agrave; s&aacute;ng l&#7853;p ki&ecirc;m gi&aacute;m &#273;&#7889;c &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; c&#7911;a Cyber Capital, Justin Bons, &#273;&atilde; d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n r&#7857;ng Bitcoin (BTC) c&oacute; th&#7875; s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893; trong v&ograve;ng 7 &#273;&#7871;n 11 n&#259;m t&#7899;i.
Anh &#7845;y ch&#7881; ra r&#7857;ng ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t c&#7911;a Bitcoin ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng gi&#7843;m, nguy c&#417; b&#7883; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng 51% t&#259;ng l&ecirc;n v&agrave; m&#7841;ng l&#432;&#7899;i ph&#7843;i &#273;&#7889;i m&#7863;t v&#7899;i nh&#7919;ng l&#7921;a ch&#7885;n r&#7845;t kh&oacute; kh&#259;n. Bons c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o r&#7857;ng c&aacute;c &#273;i&#7875;m y&#7871;u n&agrave;y c&oacute; th&#7875; khi&#7871;n ni&#7873;m tin s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893;, th&#7853;m ch&iacute; d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n vi&#7879;c chia t&aacute;ch chu&#7895;i.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-bitcoin-s-economic-security-model-under-scrutiny">M&ocirc; h&igrave;nh b&#7843;o m&#7853;t kinh t&#7871; c&#7911;a Bitcoin &#273;ang b&#7883; xem x&eacute;t</h2>

Trong nh&#7919;ng n&#259;m g&#7847;n &#273;&acirc;y, c&aacute;c chuy&ecirc;n gia &#273;&atilde; nhi&#7873;u l&#7847;n c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o v&#7873; nhi&#7873;u r&#7911;i ro &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i Bitcoin, &#273;&#7863;c bi&#7879;t l&agrave; <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/quantum-computing-bitcoin-security-risk/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">t&iacute;nh to&aacute;n l&#432;&#7907;ng t&#7917;</a> c&oacute; th&#7875; ph&aacute; v&#7905; c&aacute;c ti&ecirc;u chu&#7849;n m&atilde; h&oacute;a hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i.
Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, trong m&#7897;t b&agrave;i vi&#7871;t ph&acirc;n t&iacute;ch chi ti&#7871;t, Bons l&#7841;i n&ecirc;u ra m&#7889;i lo ng&#7841;i kh&aacute;c. Anh cho r&#7857;ng m&#7889;i &#273;e d&#7885;a l&acirc;u d&agrave;i c&#7911;a Bitcoin n&#7857;m &#7903; m&ocirc; h&igrave;nh b&#7843;o m&#7853;t v&#7873; kinh t&#7871;.
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&ldquo;BTC s&#7869; s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893; trong v&ograve;ng 7 &#273;&#7871;n 11 n&#259;m n&#7919;a! &#272;&#7847;u ti&ecirc;n, ng&agrave;nh khai th&aacute;c s&#7869; suy y&#7871;u khi ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t b&#7883; thu h&#7865;p. &#272;&oacute; l&agrave; l&uacute;c c&aacute;c cu&#7897;c t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng b&#7855;t &#273;&#7847;u; ki&#7875;m duy&#7879;t v&agrave; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng chi ti&ecirc;u g&#7845;p &#273;&ocirc;i,&rdquo; anh chia s&#7867;.
</blockquote>

Tr&#7885;ng t&acirc;m quan &#273;i&#7875;m c&#7911;a Bons l&agrave; vi&#7879;c ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t c&#7911;a Bitcoin ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng b&#7883; thu h&#7865;p. Sau <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/institutions-bitcoin-trading-plan-before-next-halving/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">m&#7895;i l&#7847;n halving, ph&#7847;n th&#432;&#7903;ng c&#7911;a th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o</a> b&#7883; gi&#7843;m m&#7897;t n&#7917;a, khi&#7871;n &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c &#273;&#7875; b&#7843;o v&#7879; m&#7841;ng l&#432;&#7899;i y&#7871;u &#273;i.
L&#7847;n halving g&#7847;n nh&#7845;t <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">di&#7877;n ra v&agrave;o th&aacute;ng 04/2024</a> v&agrave; d&#7921; ki&#7871;n s&#7869; ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c l&#7863;p l&#7841;i m&#7895;i b&#7889;n n&#259;m. Bons cho r&#7857;ng &#273;&#7875; gi&#7919; m&#7913;c b&#7843;o m&#7853;t hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i, Bitcoin ph&#7843;i li&ecirc;n t&#7909;c t&#259;ng gi&aacute; m&#7841;nh ho&#7863;c ph&iacute; giao d&#7883;ch lu&ocirc;n &#7903; m&#7913;c r&#7845;t cao, m&agrave; c&#7843; hai vi&#7879;c n&agrave;y &#273;&#7873;u r&#7845;t kh&oacute; x&#7843;y ra trong th&#7921;c t&#7871;.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;" decoding="async" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/cyNpEdqd4UkhcRQhRzVd2ug4bFY=/smart/ba92b016b88547659ab0b71848c64c29" alt="Bitcoin's Declining Security Budget" class="wp-image-792314">Ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t c&#7911;a Bitcoin ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng gi&#7843;m. Ngu&#7891;n:<a href="https://x.com/Justin_Bons/status/2011887670473982455" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow"> X/Justin Bons</a>

<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-declining-miner-revenue-and-rising-attack-risk">Doanh thu th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o gi&#7843;m v&agrave; nguy c&#417; b&#7883; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng gia t&#259;ng</h2>

Theo Bons, <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/trump-emergency-power-auction-bitcoin-mining-ai-energy/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">doanh thu th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o</a> m&#7899;i th&#7921;c s&#7921; l&agrave; th&#432;&#7899;c &#273;o ph&#7843;n &aacute;nh m&#7913;c &#273;&#7897; an to&agrave;n m&#7841;ng, ch&#7913; kh&ocirc;ng ph&#7843;i ch&#7881; &#273;&#417;n thu&#7847;n l&agrave; hashrate. Anh &#7845;y nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh r&#7857;ng khi ph&#7847;n c&#7913;ng ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng t&#7889;i &#432;u, <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-hash-rate-bottom/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">hashrate c&oacute; th&#7875; t&#259;ng</a> d&ugrave; chi ph&iacute; t&#7841;o ra m&#7895;i hash l&#7841;i gi&#7843;m, khi&#7871;n hashrate tr&#7903; th&agrave;nh ch&#7881; s&#7889; d&#7877; g&acirc;y hi&#7875;u l&#7847;m v&#7873; kh&#7843; n&#259;ng ch&#7889;ng l&#7841;i t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng c&#7911;a m&#7841;ng.
L&yacute; do l&agrave; khi doanh thu th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o gi&#7843;m, chi ph&iacute; &#273;&#7875; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng m&#7841;ng c&#361;ng gi&#7843;m m&#7841;nh theo. N&#7871;u chi ph&iacute; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng 51% th&#7845;p h&#417;n s&#7889; ti&#7873;n k&#7867; gian c&oacute; th&#7875; ki&#7871;m t&#7915; chi ti&ecirc;u g&#7845;p &#273;&ocirc;i ho&#7863;c g&acirc;y r&#7889;i lo&#7841;n, th&igrave; nh&#7919;ng ki&#7875;u t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng n&agrave;y s&#7869; c&agrave;ng d&#7877; x&#7843;y ra.
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&ldquo;L&yacute; thuy&#7871;t tr&ograve; ch&#417;i kinh t&#7871; crypto d&#7921;a v&agrave;o th&#432;&#7903;ng &ndash; ph&#7841;t, c&agrave; r&#7889;t v&agrave; c&acirc;y g&#7853;y. &#272;&oacute; l&agrave; l&yacute; do v&igrave; sao doanh thu th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh chi ph&iacute; cho m&#7897;t cu&#7897;c t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng. V&#7873; ph&iacute;a ph&#7847;n th&#432;&#7903;ng, vi&#7879;c chi ti&ecirc;u g&#7845;p &#273;&ocirc;i b&#7857;ng c&aacute;c cu&#7897;c t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng 51% nh&#7855;m v&agrave;o c&aacute;c s&agrave;n giao d&#7883;ch th&#7921;c s&#7921; l&agrave; r&#7911;i ro c&oacute; th&#7875; x&#7843;y ra v&igrave; l&#7907;i &iacute;ch ki&#7871;m &#273;&#432;&#7907;c qu&aacute; l&#7899;n,&rdquo; b&agrave;i vi&#7871;t c&oacute; &#273;o&#7841;n n&ecirc;u r&otilde;.
</blockquote>

Hi&#7879;n nay, ph&iacute; giao d&#7883;ch ch&#7881; chi&#7871;m <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/how-to-mine-cryptocurrency/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">m&#7897;t ph&#7847;n nh&#7887; thu nh&#7853;p c&#7911;a th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o</a>. Khi ph&#7847;n th&#432;&#7903;ng block d&#7847;n v&#7873; 0 trong v&agrave;i th&#7853;p k&#7927; t&#7899;i, Bitcoin s&#7869; g&#7847;n nh&#432; ch&#7881; c&ograve;n d&#7921;a v&agrave;o ph&iacute; giao d&#7883;ch &#273;&#7875; &#273;&#7843;m b&#7843;o an ninh. Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, v&igrave; dung l&#432;&#7907;ng block c&#7911;a Bitcoin b&#7883; gi&#7899;i h&#7841;n, s&#7889; giao d&#7883;ch m&#7895;i block kh&ocirc;ng th&#7875; t&#259;ng m&atilde;i, d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n t&#7893;ng s&#7889; ph&iacute; thu &#273;&#432;&#7907;c c&#361;ng kh&ocirc;ng nhi&#7873;u.
Bons c&#361;ng cho r&#7857;ng ph&iacute; cao l&acirc;u d&agrave;i s&#7869; kh&oacute; x&#7843;y ra, v&igrave; n&#7871;u ph&iacute; t&#259;ng, ng&#432;&#7901;i d&ugrave;ng s&#7869; d&#7847;n r&#7901;i b&#7887; m&#7841;ng, khi&#7871;n ph&iacute; kh&oacute; c&oacute; th&#7875; thay th&#7871; ho&agrave;n to&agrave;n ph&#7847;n th&#432;&#7903;ng block trong t&#432;&#417;ng lai.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-congestion-bank-run-dynamics-and-a-potential-death-spiral">T&#7855;c ngh&#7869;n, &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c r&uacute;t ti&#7873;n h&agrave;ng lo&#7841;t v&agrave; nguy c&#417; v&ograve;ng xo&aacute;y s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893;</h2>

B&ecirc;n c&#7841;nh lo ng&#7841;i v&#7873; ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t, Bons c&ograve;n c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o v&#7873; k&#7883;ch b&#7843;n &ldquo;bank-run&rdquo;. Theo anh,
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&ldquo;Ngay c&#7843; khi t&iacute;nh to&aacute;n &#7903; m&#7913;c r&#7845;t th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng, ch&#7881; c&#7847;n m&#7895;i ng&#432;&#7901;i d&ugrave;ng BTC hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i th&#7921;c hi&#7879;n m&#7897;t giao d&#7883;ch, th&#7901;i gian ch&#7901; s&#7869; l&ecirc;n t&#7899;i 1.82 th&aacute;ng!&rdquo;
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Anh gi&#7843;i th&iacute;ch r&#7857;ng trong nh&#7919;ng l&uacute;c ho&#7843;ng lo&#7841;n, m&#7841;ng l&#432;&#7899;i kh&ocirc;ng th&#7875; x&#7917; l&yacute; r&uacute;t ti&#7873;n k&#7883;p th&#7901;i, khi&#7871;n ng&#432;&#7901;i d&ugrave;ng b&#7883; &ldquo;k&#7865;t&rdquo; do t&#7855;c ngh&#7869;n v&agrave; ph&iacute; t&#259;ng cao, ch&#7859;ng kh&aacute;c n&agrave;o m&#7897;t v&#7909; &ldquo;bank run&rdquo;.
Bons c&#361;ng ch&#7881; ra c&#417; ch&#7871; &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh &#273;&#7897; kh&oacute; (difficulty adjustment) trong 2 tu&#7847;n l&agrave; m&#7897;t r&#7911;i ro c&#7897;ng h&#432;&#7903;ng. N&#7871;u gi&aacute; gi&#7843;m m&#7841;nh, c&aacute;c th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o kh&ocirc;ng c&oacute; l&atilde;i s&#7869; ng&#7915;ng ho&#7841;t &#273;&#7897;ng, l&agrave;m t&#7889;c &#273;&#7897; ra block gi&#7843;m cho t&#7899;i l&#7847;n &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh k&#7871; ti&#7871;p.
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&ldquo;Khi t&acirc;m l&yacute; ho&#7843;ng lo&#7841;n khi&#7871;n gi&aacute; lao d&#7889;c, th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o l&#7841;i c&agrave;ng r&uacute;t m&aacute;y kh&#7887;i m&#7841;ng, k&eacute;o t&#7889;c &#273;&#7897; t&#7841;o block ch&#7853;m l&#7841;i, c&agrave;ng l&agrave;m m&#7885;i ng&#432;&#7901;i lo s&#7907;, gi&aacute; l&#7841;i gi&#7843;m s&acirc;u h&#417;n, l&#7841;i c&agrave;ng nhi&#7873;u th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o b&#7887; cu&#7897;c&hellip; C&#7913; v&#7853;y li&ecirc;n t&#7909;c &ndash; &#273;&acirc;y ch&iacute;nh l&agrave; v&ograve;ng lu&#7849;n qu&#7849;n trong l&yacute; thuy&#7871;t tr&ograve; ch&#417;i, c&ograve;n g&#7885;i l&agrave; v&ograve;ng ph&#7843;n h&#7891;i ti&ecirc;u c&#7921;c ho&#7863;c xo&#7855;n &#7889;c t&#7917; th&#7847;n,&rdquo; anh nh&#7853;n &#273;&#7883;nh th&ecirc;m.
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Anh c&#361;ng nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh r&#7857;ng r&#7911;i ro t&#7855;c ngh&#7869;n &#273;&oacute; s&#7869; khi&#7871;n vi&#7879;c <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/iran-crypto-bitcoin-political-unrest-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">t&#7921; l&#432;u tr&#7919; token &#273;&#7841;i tr&agrave;</a> tr&#7903; n&ecirc;n nguy hi&#7875;m trong c&aacute;c giai &#273;o&#7841;n c&#259;ng th&#7859;ng, b&#7903;i r&#7845;t c&oacute; th&#7875; ng&#432;&#7901;i d&ugrave;ng s&#7869; kh&ocirc;ng th&#7875; r&uacute;t ra kh&#7887;i m&#7841;ng khi nhu c&#7847;u t&#259;ng &#273;&#7897;t bi&#7871;n.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">M&#7897;t t&igrave;nh th&#7871; kh&oacute; tr&aacute;nh cho Bitcoin</h3>

Bons k&#7871;t lu&#7853;n r&#7857;ng Bitcoin &#273;ang &#273;&#7913;ng tr&#432;&#7899;c m&#7897;t l&#7921;a ch&#7885;n kh&oacute;. M&#7897;t h&#432;&#7899;ng l&agrave; t&#259;ng ngu&#7891;n cung v&#432;&#7907;t qu&aacute; 21 tri&#7879;u coin &#273;&#7875; khuy&#7871;n kh&iacute;ch th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o v&agrave; duy tr&igrave; an to&agrave;n h&#7879; th&#7889;ng. Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, &#273;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y s&#7869; ph&aacute; v&#7905; gi&aacute; tr&#7883; c&#7889;t l&otilde;i c&#7911;a Bitcoin v&agrave; g&#7847;n nh&#432; ch&#7855;c ch&#7855;n d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n vi&#7879;c chia t&aacute;ch chu&#7895;i.
Ph&#432;&#417;ng &aacute;n c&ograve;n l&#7841;i l&agrave; ch&#7845;p nh&#7853;n m&ocirc; h&igrave;nh b&#7843;o m&#7853;t ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng y&#7871;u, v&agrave; ph&#7843;i &#273;&#7889;i m&#7863;t v&#7899;i c&aacute;c r&#7911;i ro b&#7883; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng, ki&#7875;m duy&#7879;t ng&agrave;y m&#7897;t l&#7899;n.
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&ldquo;K&#7883;ch b&#7843;n d&#7877; x&#7843;y ra nh&#7845;t l&agrave; trong 7&ndash;11 n&#259;m t&#7899;i, c&#7843; hai ph&#432;&#417;ng &aacute;n t&ocirc;i m&ocirc; t&#7843;, th&#7853;m ch&iacute; c&oacute; th&#7875; nhi&#7873;u h&#417;n, s&#7869; &#273;&#7891;ng th&#7901;i x&#7843;y ra,&rdquo; Bons chia s&#7867;.
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Anh c&#361;ng li&ecirc;n h&#7879; v&#7845;n &#273;&#7873; n&agrave;y &#273;&#7871;n di s&#7843;n c&#7911;a c&aacute;c cu&#7897;c tranh lu&#7853;n v&#7873; k&iacute;ch th&#432;&#7899;c block tr&#432;&#7899;c &#273;&acirc;y, cho r&#7857;ng c&#417; ch&#7871; qu&#7843;n tr&#7883; c&#7911;a Bitcoin Core khi&#7871;n vi&#7879;c s&#7917;a &#273;&#7893;i giao th&#7913;c g&#7847;n nh&#432; kh&ocirc;ng th&#7875; n&#7871;u kh&ocirc;ng c&oacute; kh&#7911;ng ho&#7843;ng l&#7899;n bu&#7897;c ph&#7843;i h&agrave;nh &#273;&#7897;ng. Nh&#432;ng &#273;&#7871;n l&uacute;c &#273;&oacute;, c&oacute; th&#7875; m&#7885;i th&#7913; &#273;&atilde; qu&aacute; mu&#7897;n.

Bitcoin có thể sụp đổ trong 7 đến 11 năm tới, theo cảnh báo từ nhà sáng lập Cyber Capital

Nh&agrave; s&aacute;ng l&#7853;p ki&ecirc;m gi&aacute;m &#273;&#7889;c &#273;&#7847;u t&#432; c&#7911;a Cyber Capital, Justin Bons, &#273;&atilde; d&#7921; &#273;o&aacute;n r&#7857;ng Bitcoin (BTC) c&oacute; th&#7875; s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893; trong v&ograve;ng 7 &#273;&#7871;n 11 n&#259;m t&#7899;i.
Anh &#7845;y ch&#7881; ra r&#7857;ng ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t c&#7911;a Bitcoin ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng gi&#7843;m, nguy c&#417; b&#7883; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng 51% t&#259;ng l&ecirc;n v&agrave; m&#7841;ng l&#432;&#7899;i ph&#7843;i &#273;&#7889;i m&#7863;t v&#7899;i nh&#7919;ng l&#7921;a ch&#7885;n r&#7845;t kh&oacute; kh&#259;n. Bons c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o r&#7857;ng c&aacute;c &#273;i&#7875;m y&#7871;u n&agrave;y c&oacute; th&#7875; khi&#7871;n ni&#7873;m tin s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893;, th&#7853;m ch&iacute; d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n vi&#7879;c chia t&aacute;ch chu&#7895;i.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-bitcoin-s-economic-security-model-under-scrutiny">M&ocirc; h&igrave;nh b&#7843;o m&#7853;t kinh t&#7871; c&#7911;a Bitcoin &#273;ang b&#7883; xem x&eacute;t</h2>

Trong nh&#7919;ng n&#259;m g&#7847;n &#273;&acirc;y, c&aacute;c chuy&ecirc;n gia &#273;&atilde; nhi&#7873;u l&#7847;n c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o v&#7873; nhi&#7873;u r&#7911;i ro &#273;&#7889;i v&#7899;i Bitcoin, &#273;&#7863;c bi&#7879;t l&agrave; <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/quantum-computing-bitcoin-security-risk/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">t&iacute;nh to&aacute;n l&#432;&#7907;ng t&#7917;</a> c&oacute; th&#7875; ph&aacute; v&#7905; c&aacute;c ti&ecirc;u chu&#7849;n m&atilde; h&oacute;a hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i.
Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, trong m&#7897;t b&agrave;i vi&#7871;t ph&acirc;n t&iacute;ch chi ti&#7871;t, Bons l&#7841;i n&ecirc;u ra m&#7889;i lo ng&#7841;i kh&aacute;c. Anh cho r&#7857;ng m&#7889;i &#273;e d&#7885;a l&acirc;u d&agrave;i c&#7911;a Bitcoin n&#7857;m &#7903; m&ocirc; h&igrave;nh b&#7843;o m&#7853;t v&#7873; kinh t&#7871;.
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&ldquo;BTC s&#7869; s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893; trong v&ograve;ng 7 &#273;&#7871;n 11 n&#259;m n&#7919;a! &#272;&#7847;u ti&ecirc;n, ng&agrave;nh khai th&aacute;c s&#7869; suy y&#7871;u khi ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t b&#7883; thu h&#7865;p. &#272;&oacute; l&agrave; l&uacute;c c&aacute;c cu&#7897;c t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng b&#7855;t &#273;&#7847;u; ki&#7875;m duy&#7879;t v&agrave; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng chi ti&ecirc;u g&#7845;p &#273;&ocirc;i,&rdquo; anh chia s&#7867;.
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Tr&#7885;ng t&acirc;m quan &#273;i&#7875;m c&#7911;a Bons l&agrave; vi&#7879;c ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t c&#7911;a Bitcoin ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng b&#7883; thu h&#7865;p. Sau <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/institutions-bitcoin-trading-plan-before-next-halving/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">m&#7895;i l&#7847;n halving, ph&#7847;n th&#432;&#7903;ng c&#7911;a th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o</a> b&#7883; gi&#7843;m m&#7897;t n&#7917;a, khi&#7871;n &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c &#273;&#7875; b&#7843;o v&#7879; m&#7841;ng l&#432;&#7899;i y&#7871;u &#273;i.
L&#7847;n halving g&#7847;n nh&#7845;t <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">di&#7877;n ra v&agrave;o th&aacute;ng 04/2024</a> v&agrave; d&#7921; ki&#7871;n s&#7869; ti&#7871;p t&#7909;c l&#7863;p l&#7841;i m&#7895;i b&#7889;n n&#259;m. Bons cho r&#7857;ng &#273;&#7875; gi&#7919; m&#7913;c b&#7843;o m&#7853;t hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i, Bitcoin ph&#7843;i li&ecirc;n t&#7909;c t&#259;ng gi&aacute; m&#7841;nh ho&#7863;c ph&iacute; giao d&#7883;ch lu&ocirc;n &#7903; m&#7913;c r&#7845;t cao, m&agrave; c&#7843; hai vi&#7879;c n&agrave;y &#273;&#7873;u r&#7845;t kh&oacute; x&#7843;y ra trong th&#7921;c t&#7871;.
<img style="height:400px;width:640px;"decoding="async" src="https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/cyNpEdqd4UkhcRQhRzVd2ug4bFY=/smart/ba92b016b88547659ab0b71848c64c29" alt="Bitcoin's Declining Security Budget" class="wp-image-792314">Ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t c&#7911;a Bitcoin ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng gi&#7843;m. Ngu&#7891;n:<a href="https://x.com/Justin_Bons/status/2011887670473982455" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow"> X/Justin Bons</a>

<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-declining-miner-revenue-and-rising-attack-risk">Doanh thu th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o gi&#7843;m v&agrave; nguy c&#417; b&#7883; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng gia t&#259;ng</h2>

Theo Bons, <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/trump-emergency-power-auction-bitcoin-mining-ai-energy/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">doanh thu th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o</a> m&#7899;i th&#7921;c s&#7921; l&agrave; th&#432;&#7899;c &#273;o ph&#7843;n &aacute;nh m&#7913;c &#273;&#7897; an to&agrave;n m&#7841;ng, ch&#7913; kh&ocirc;ng ph&#7843;i ch&#7881; &#273;&#417;n thu&#7847;n l&agrave; hashrate. Anh &#7845;y nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh r&#7857;ng khi ph&#7847;n c&#7913;ng ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng t&#7889;i &#432;u, <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-hash-rate-bottom/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">hashrate c&oacute; th&#7875; t&#259;ng</a> d&ugrave; chi ph&iacute; t&#7841;o ra m&#7895;i hash l&#7841;i gi&#7843;m, khi&#7871;n hashrate tr&#7903; th&agrave;nh ch&#7881; s&#7889; d&#7877; g&acirc;y hi&#7875;u l&#7847;m v&#7873; kh&#7843; n&#259;ng ch&#7889;ng l&#7841;i t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng c&#7911;a m&#7841;ng.
L&yacute; do l&agrave; khi doanh thu th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o gi&#7843;m, chi ph&iacute; &#273;&#7875; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng m&#7841;ng c&#361;ng gi&#7843;m m&#7841;nh theo. N&#7871;u chi ph&iacute; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng 51% th&#7845;p h&#417;n s&#7889; ti&#7873;n k&#7867; gian c&oacute; th&#7875; ki&#7871;m t&#7915; chi ti&ecirc;u g&#7845;p &#273;&ocirc;i ho&#7863;c g&acirc;y r&#7889;i lo&#7841;n, th&igrave; nh&#7919;ng ki&#7875;u t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng n&agrave;y s&#7869; c&agrave;ng d&#7877; x&#7843;y ra.
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&ldquo;L&yacute; thuy&#7871;t tr&ograve; ch&#417;i kinh t&#7871; crypto d&#7921;a v&agrave;o th&#432;&#7903;ng &ndash; ph&#7841;t, c&agrave; r&#7889;t v&agrave; c&acirc;y g&#7853;y. &#272;&oacute; l&agrave; l&yacute; do v&igrave; sao doanh thu th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh chi ph&iacute; cho m&#7897;t cu&#7897;c t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng. V&#7873; ph&iacute;a ph&#7847;n th&#432;&#7903;ng, vi&#7879;c chi ti&ecirc;u g&#7845;p &#273;&ocirc;i b&#7857;ng c&aacute;c cu&#7897;c t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng 51% nh&#7855;m v&agrave;o c&aacute;c s&agrave;n giao d&#7883;ch th&#7921;c s&#7921; l&agrave; r&#7911;i ro c&oacute; th&#7875; x&#7843;y ra v&igrave; l&#7907;i &iacute;ch ki&#7871;m &#273;&#432;&#7907;c qu&aacute; l&#7899;n,&rdquo; b&agrave;i vi&#7871;t c&oacute; &#273;o&#7841;n n&ecirc;u r&otilde;.
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Hi&#7879;n nay, ph&iacute; giao d&#7883;ch ch&#7881; chi&#7871;m <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/how-to-mine-cryptocurrency/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">m&#7897;t ph&#7847;n nh&#7887; thu nh&#7853;p c&#7911;a th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o</a>. Khi ph&#7847;n th&#432;&#7903;ng block d&#7847;n v&#7873; 0 trong v&agrave;i th&#7853;p k&#7927; t&#7899;i, Bitcoin s&#7869; g&#7847;n nh&#432; ch&#7881; c&ograve;n d&#7921;a v&agrave;o ph&iacute; giao d&#7883;ch &#273;&#7875; &#273;&#7843;m b&#7843;o an ninh. Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, v&igrave; dung l&#432;&#7907;ng block c&#7911;a Bitcoin b&#7883; gi&#7899;i h&#7841;n, s&#7889; giao d&#7883;ch m&#7895;i block kh&ocirc;ng th&#7875; t&#259;ng m&atilde;i, d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n t&#7893;ng s&#7889; ph&iacute; thu &#273;&#432;&#7907;c c&#361;ng kh&ocirc;ng nhi&#7873;u.
Bons c&#361;ng cho r&#7857;ng ph&iacute; cao l&acirc;u d&agrave;i s&#7869; kh&oacute; x&#7843;y ra, v&igrave; n&#7871;u ph&iacute; t&#259;ng, ng&#432;&#7901;i d&ugrave;ng s&#7869; d&#7847;n r&#7901;i b&#7887; m&#7841;ng, khi&#7871;n ph&iacute; kh&oacute; c&oacute; th&#7875; thay th&#7871; ho&agrave;n to&agrave;n ph&#7847;n th&#432;&#7903;ng block trong t&#432;&#417;ng lai.
<h2 class="bic-gutenberg-heading wp-heading wp-block-heading" id="h-congestion-bank-run-dynamics-and-a-potential-death-spiral">T&#7855;c ngh&#7869;n, &#273;&#7897;ng l&#7921;c r&uacute;t ti&#7873;n h&agrave;ng lo&#7841;t v&agrave; nguy c&#417; v&ograve;ng xo&aacute;y s&#7909;p &#273;&#7893;</h2>

B&ecirc;n c&#7841;nh lo ng&#7841;i v&#7873; ng&acirc;n s&aacute;ch b&#7843;o m&#7853;t, Bons c&ograve;n c&#7843;nh b&aacute;o v&#7873; k&#7883;ch b&#7843;n &ldquo;bank-run&rdquo;. Theo anh,
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&ldquo;Ngay c&#7843; khi t&iacute;nh to&aacute;n &#7903; m&#7913;c r&#7845;t th&#7853;n tr&#7885;ng, ch&#7881; c&#7847;n m&#7895;i ng&#432;&#7901;i d&ugrave;ng BTC hi&#7879;n t&#7841;i th&#7921;c hi&#7879;n m&#7897;t giao d&#7883;ch, th&#7901;i gian ch&#7901; s&#7869; l&ecirc;n t&#7899;i 1.82 th&aacute;ng!&rdquo;
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Anh gi&#7843;i th&iacute;ch r&#7857;ng trong nh&#7919;ng l&uacute;c ho&#7843;ng lo&#7841;n, m&#7841;ng l&#432;&#7899;i kh&ocirc;ng th&#7875; x&#7917; l&yacute; r&uacute;t ti&#7873;n k&#7883;p th&#7901;i, khi&#7871;n ng&#432;&#7901;i d&ugrave;ng b&#7883; &ldquo;k&#7865;t&rdquo; do t&#7855;c ngh&#7869;n v&agrave; ph&iacute; t&#259;ng cao, ch&#7859;ng kh&aacute;c n&agrave;o m&#7897;t v&#7909; &ldquo;bank run&rdquo;.
Bons c&#361;ng ch&#7881; ra c&#417; ch&#7871; &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh &#273;&#7897; kh&oacute; (difficulty adjustment) trong 2 tu&#7847;n l&agrave; m&#7897;t r&#7911;i ro c&#7897;ng h&#432;&#7903;ng. N&#7871;u gi&aacute; gi&#7843;m m&#7841;nh, c&aacute;c th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o kh&ocirc;ng c&oacute; l&atilde;i s&#7869; ng&#7915;ng ho&#7841;t &#273;&#7897;ng, l&agrave;m t&#7889;c &#273;&#7897; ra block gi&#7843;m cho t&#7899;i l&#7847;n &#273;i&#7873;u ch&#7881;nh k&#7871; ti&#7871;p.
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&ldquo;Khi t&acirc;m l&yacute; ho&#7843;ng lo&#7841;n khi&#7871;n gi&aacute; lao d&#7889;c, th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o l&#7841;i c&agrave;ng r&uacute;t m&aacute;y kh&#7887;i m&#7841;ng, k&eacute;o t&#7889;c &#273;&#7897; t&#7841;o block ch&#7853;m l&#7841;i, c&agrave;ng l&agrave;m m&#7885;i ng&#432;&#7901;i lo s&#7907;, gi&aacute; l&#7841;i gi&#7843;m s&acirc;u h&#417;n, l&#7841;i c&agrave;ng nhi&#7873;u th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o b&#7887; cu&#7897;c&hellip; C&#7913; v&#7853;y li&ecirc;n t&#7909;c &ndash; &#273;&acirc;y ch&iacute;nh l&agrave; v&ograve;ng lu&#7849;n qu&#7849;n trong l&yacute; thuy&#7871;t tr&ograve; ch&#417;i, c&ograve;n g&#7885;i l&agrave; v&ograve;ng ph&#7843;n h&#7891;i ti&ecirc;u c&#7921;c ho&#7863;c xo&#7855;n &#7889;c t&#7917; th&#7847;n,&rdquo; anh nh&#7853;n &#273;&#7883;nh th&ecirc;m.
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Anh c&#361;ng nh&#7845;n m&#7841;nh r&#7857;ng r&#7911;i ro t&#7855;c ngh&#7869;n &#273;&oacute; s&#7869; khi&#7871;n vi&#7879;c <a href="https://vn.beincrypto.com/iran-crypto-bitcoin-political-unrest-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">t&#7921; l&#432;u tr&#7919; token &#273;&#7841;i tr&agrave;</a> tr&#7903; n&ecirc;n nguy hi&#7875;m trong c&aacute;c giai &#273;o&#7841;n c&#259;ng th&#7859;ng, b&#7903;i r&#7845;t c&oacute; th&#7875; ng&#432;&#7901;i d&ugrave;ng s&#7869; kh&ocirc;ng th&#7875; r&uacute;t ra kh&#7887;i m&#7841;ng khi nhu c&#7847;u t&#259;ng &#273;&#7897;t bi&#7871;n.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">M&#7897;t t&igrave;nh th&#7871; kh&oacute; tr&aacute;nh cho Bitcoin</h3>

Bons k&#7871;t lu&#7853;n r&#7857;ng Bitcoin &#273;ang &#273;&#7913;ng tr&#432;&#7899;c m&#7897;t l&#7921;a ch&#7885;n kh&oacute;. M&#7897;t h&#432;&#7899;ng l&agrave; t&#259;ng ngu&#7891;n cung v&#432;&#7907;t qu&aacute; 21 tri&#7879;u coin &#273;&#7875; khuy&#7871;n kh&iacute;ch th&#7907; &#273;&agrave;o v&agrave; duy tr&igrave; an to&agrave;n h&#7879; th&#7889;ng. Tuy nhi&ecirc;n, &#273;i&#7873;u n&agrave;y s&#7869; ph&aacute; v&#7905; gi&aacute; tr&#7883; c&#7889;t l&otilde;i c&#7911;a Bitcoin v&agrave; g&#7847;n nh&#432; ch&#7855;c ch&#7855;n d&#7851;n &#273;&#7871;n vi&#7879;c chia t&aacute;ch chu&#7895;i.
Ph&#432;&#417;ng &aacute;n c&ograve;n l&#7841;i l&agrave; ch&#7845;p nh&#7853;n m&ocirc; h&igrave;nh b&#7843;o m&#7853;t ng&agrave;y c&agrave;ng y&#7871;u, v&agrave; ph&#7843;i &#273;&#7889;i m&#7863;t v&#7899;i c&aacute;c r&#7911;i ro b&#7883; t&#7845;n c&ocirc;ng, ki&#7875;m duy&#7879;t ng&agrave;y m&#7897;t l&#7899;n.
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&ldquo;K&#7883;ch b&#7843;n d&#7877; x&#7843;y ra nh&#7845;t l&agrave; trong 7&ndash;11 n&#259;m t&#7899;i, c&#7843; hai ph&#432;&#417;ng &aacute;n t&ocirc;i m&ocirc; t&#7843;, th&#7853;m ch&iacute; c&oacute; th&#7875; nhi&#7873;u h&#417;n, s&#7869; &#273;&#7891;ng th&#7901;i x&#7843;y ra,&rdquo; Bons chia s&#7867;.
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Anh c&#361;ng li&ecirc;n h&#7879; v&#7845;n &#273;&#7873; n&agrave;y &#273;&#7871;n di s&#7843;n c&#7911;a c&aacute;c cu&#7897;c tranh lu&#7853;n v&#7873; k&iacute;ch th&#432;&#7899;c block tr&#432;&#7899;c &#273;&acirc;y, cho r&#7857;ng c&#417; ch&#7871; qu&#7843;n tr&#7883; c&#7911;a Bitcoin Core khi&#7871;n vi&#7879;c s&#7917;a &#273;&#7893;i giao th&#7913;c g&#7847;n nh&#432; kh&ocirc;ng th&#7875; n&#7871;u kh&ocirc;ng c&oacute; kh&#7911;ng ho&#7843;ng l&#7899;n bu&#7897;c ph&#7843;i h&agrave;nh &#273;&#7897;ng. Nh&#432;ng &#273;&#7871;n l&uacute;c &#273;&oacute;, c&oacute; th&#7875; m&#7885;i th&#7913; &#273;&atilde; qu&aacute; mu&#7897;n.